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Tuesday, August 28, 2007--Andis Kaulins [8/28/2007 09:38:00 PM] - Home
General Predictions for the Upcoming College Football Season 2007
Caveat Emptor (Buyer Beware). We make our predictions in good fun out of interest for the sport. Please do not rely on our predictions to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our predictions, analysis or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy.
Take a look at some of the predictions for this season that we made already last year. Then let us turn to our predictions of a national champion.
PREDICTED NATIONAL CHAMPIONS 2007-2008
Predicted DIVISION I-A (FOOTBALL BOWL SUBDIVISION) - NEBRASKA
In spite of a having a team far better than its record, Nebraska lost a number of games last year because of poor coaching and one must hope that the Cornhusker coaching staff has learned some lessons in the interim. Last year's offensive coordinator for the Huskers, Jay Norvell, has taken a comparable post at UCLA, a team laden with talent, so we will see. Our comments on last year's offense at Nebraska are found here.
NU's new offensive coordinator, Shawn Watson, who comes to Lincoln from the Colorado Buffaloes, is a former colleague of Callahan's who apparently understands the West Coast offense - we hope so for the sake of the Huskers. We do think that Nebraska might have a stronger running game than expected, going back to the physical strengths which make teams dominant in college football and which marked the great Husker teams of the past.
Steven M. Sipple at the Lincoln Journal Star writes in Impressions from Fall Camp: "Pity the cornerback who has to take on Nebraska I-back Quentin Castille in the open field. The 6-foot-1, 245-pound freshman charges upfield like a runaway locomotive."
But really, can Callahan do it? Being a Nebraska alumnus, we see that the chances of Nebraska winning it all are not impossible, so we thought we might predict the improbable - for all you fans out there in Huskerland - Go Big Red.
USC is beatable and the Huskers play them at home on September 15, so if they vanquish the Trojans, the Huskers will surely be ranked in the top 5. But to become national champions, they would still have a long hard road ahead of them.
OK. If the Huskers do not win, who will? Everyone is picking USC, but based on last season, there are question marks. First, USC has to get by Nebraska, and we think the Huskers could win at home in Lincoln.
Or is this finally the year of the "Go Blue" Michigan breakthrough? In addition to the vastly improved defense instituted last year by new defensive coordinator Ron English, their former defensive back coach, Vance Bedford, has returned after nine years - and that may prove to be the critical difference. The Wolverines certainly have the talent this year, with two Heisman Trophy candidates, Chad Henne and Mike Hart and several more All-America caliber players. If Michigan head coach Lloyd Carr - who earned his spurs as a defensive assistant coach - would adapt the Wolverine game plan to the great offensive players he has and not play so conservatively, they might indeed win the national championship this year.
To do so, they would have to beat the Wisconsin Badgers, and that may become increasingly difficult if Bret Bielema picks up where he left off, becoming only the third NCAA coach ever to win 12 games in his first season as a head coach. On Wisconsin in 2007?
We think that the conference which is the most difficult to call in 2007 is the SEC, in spite of the fact that LSU is highly rated by everyone. We find it hard to understand that a team that loses its quarterback, the Nr. 1 pro football draft pick, plus three other players in the NFL first round draft, is then picked to play for the BCS title the next year, even though they did not make it when they had those top players. We think it not likely that LSU will be as good this year as last, and the same can be said for Arkansas and Florida, though Urban Meyer is a top coach and a force to be reckoned with, so that we would not be surprised at all at a Gators repeat. But the SEC is loaded with good teams and we think the conference is up for grabs. Auburn, Alabama (with new top coach Saban), Tennessee (the Rocky Top team is always loaded with top players) and Georgia (potentially the strongest team if they just had a top quarterback) all have a crack at the SEC crown and a national championship.
And what about the Big East? As we wrote about the most recent bowl game results:
"The Big East Conference was the only NCAA Division I-A Conference to win all of its bowl games and yet conference champion, Louisville, previously ranked 5th and 6th in the rankings, after defeating Atlantic Coast Conference champion Wake Forest in the Orange Bowl 24-13, dropped to 6th and 7th in the rankings. Sagarin's Predictor, the most accurate judge of a team's performance against other teams, would rank Louisville 3rd! Really, how good is Louisville? We really don't know because of this year's - in part -very unsatisfactory bowl matchups. The polls definitely do not reflect what went on in all the bowl games."
As Stewart Mandel has written about Louisville, a talented crop of players is returning and the only question is how they will adjust to their new coach Steve Kragthorpe. And then you have West Virginia and Rutgers, not to mention "the sleeper", Cincinnati, under a new coach.
No matter who wins, we think it will be a bit of surprise, since it may not be USC.
Predicted DIVISION I-AA (FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP SUBDIVISION) Champion - APPALACHIAN STATE MOUNTAINEERS
Under head coach Jerry Moore, Appalachian State is going for a national championship three-peat, having beaten Northern Iowa and Massachusetts for the title in 2005 and 2006. Unfortunately, Appalachian State will not go undefeated, because their first game is against Divsion I-A Michigan.
Predicted Division II Champion - CHADRON STATE COLLEGE EAGLES
Grand Valley State will also be going for a three-peat, triumphing in their 28th straight win by beating Northwest Missouri State in last season's finals 17-14, a team which had beaten Chadron State and its record-setting runner Danny Woodhead 28-21 in the semi-finals. Grand Valley is ranked Nr. 1 and Chadron State Nr. 5 in the D2 pre-season poll.
As we wrote at SportPundit last year:
"Here are our predictions for the upcoming 2007 football season:
1. Danny Woodhead of Chadron State, the 2006 season's winner of the Harlon Hill Trophy, will break the all-time NCAA career rushing record somewhere around midseason 2007."
Predicted Division III CHAMPION - MOUNT UNION PURPLE RAIDERS
The D3 preseason poll has Mount Union ranked Nr. 1 as the Purple Raiders also head for a three-peat in D3 football. Head coach Larry Kehres of the Purple Raiders, who we regard to be the best coach in college football, returns what may potentially be his best team ever, with seven starters each returning on offense and defense and 48 letter winners total. D3football.com writes:
"Since 1990, the Raiders have the most wins and best winning percentage in all of college football (216-10-1, .954)."
PREDICTED NAIA CHAMPION- CARROLL (MONTANA)
Sioux Falls (South Dakota) beat St. Francis (Indiana) last year in the final playoff game 23-19 in a game dominated by St. Francis: "St. Francis dominated in total yardage, 349-214, but lost three fumbles. Starting quarterback Eric Hooks was sacked four times." The preseason NAIA poll ranks Sioux Falls Nr. 1. From 2002 to 2005, Carroll (Montana) won the NAIA championship four years running. Head coach Mike Van Diest has decided to stay at Carroll, removing his name from the candidates for the post at Montana State, so that this is bound to be a great motivator for the team in 2007.
MOST IMPROVED TEAMS
To start out with, here are some of our opening - speculative - predictions about this 2007-2008 college football season:
1) We predict that one of the Most Improved Teams and Avantgarde Pioneers of the No-Huddle Spread Offense will be the Tulsa Golden Hurricane of Conference USA. ArmySports writes: "Tulsa might be the sexiest name in college football, but the Golden Hurricanes are still a damn good team."
Tulsa was a very good 8-5 last year and we predict a 12-1 season for them this year with their only loss probably going to Oklahoma in their third game on September 21, even though we think Oklahoma will have a tough time beating them if they are not perfectly prepared for high-speed football. Tulsa in our opinion will be ranked in the top 25 by season's end. Coaching is still the most important element in college football and Tulsa hit absolute paydirt due to the coaching changes made since last year. In spite of having lost a very good head coach in Steve Kragthorpe, who went to Louisville to replace Atlanta Falcons bound Bobby Petrino, we think that Tulsa has acquired a great head coach from Rice in Todd Graham and a great offensive coordinator from Arkansas in the person of Gus Malzahn. The result should be gold.
Graham turned a 1-11 team at Rice into a 7-5 bowl team in one year. As we wrote in SportPundit last year about Graham:
"In 2006, their new coach Todd Graham, the newly chosen Conference USA Coach of the Year, led the Owls to a 7-5 record and their first bowl game in 45 years. What a success story that is. There is such a thing as a "track record", at least in the case of Graham, whose Rice turnaround is the best in the NCAA this year. He has helped to do it before:
"At West Virginia University under head coach Rich Rodriguez, Graham helped the Mountaineers improve from a 3-8 mark to a 9-3 record in his second season. At Tulsa under Steve Kragthorpe, the Hurricane jumped from 1-11 in 2002 prior to his arrival, to an 8-4 record in '03. Both the WVU and Tulsa turnarounds were the best in NCAA Division I in those seasons.""
Tulsa will be using Malzahn's no-huddle spread offense and we think that Tulsa's success with this offense this year will change the face of football everywhere, leading to more no-huddle offenses and requiring opposing teams to develop new and better defensive strategies to deal with high-tech high-speed no-huddle football. The two coaches were first connected by video 10 years ago.
2) We think that the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors could go undefeated. Last year under its incomparably accurate-throwing quarterback, Colt Brennan, who proved virtually unstoppable, Hawaii lost only three games, in spite of higher total offense stats than the winners of those games, losing only through turnovers and weaknesses on defense, so that fewer turnovers and an improved defense could be the difference this year.
3) Alabama should surge under new head coach Nick Saban, who signed on for the Crimson Tide for a package making him the highest paid coach in college football. Saban is already exerting strong discipline.
4) Stanford, this writer's law school alma mater, should pick up more than 1 win this year under new coach Jim Harbaugh, but where is not clear, with one of the toughest schedules in the country. The AP writes:
"The players will flock to his personality," Raiders quarterback Marques Tuiasosopo said. "He's the type of coach they'll want to play for."
6) Duke and North Carolina should improve. As we wrote last year:
"John Bunting finished his last season as North Carolina head football coach as the Tar Heels cemented Duke's winless 0-12 season with a 45-44 victory. With Butch Davis taking over in 2007, the Tar Heels are sure to improve upon their 3-9 2006 season. Davis has coached or recruited 28 first round NFL draft choices. Duke coach Ted Roof redshirted two-thirds of his freshman class so look for Duke to pick up a win in 2006."
7) As we wrote about Buffalo to close out last year:
"Buffalo will win more than 2 games under now 2nd-year coach Turner Gill. In 2006 they beat Temple (1-11) in overtime 9-3 and upset 6-6 Kent State 41-14. For reasons previously stated at LawPundit, we expect Buffalo to develop into a football power under Gill's tutelage. One sign of things to come is a new series starting in 2007 with Baylor of the Big 12."
8) As we stated regarding Temple in 2006:
" Temple will win more than 1 game under now 2nd-year coach Al Golden, the former defensive coordinator at Virginia, who bravely took over as head coach in 2006 and whose Owls then snapped a 20-game losing streak with a 28-14 win over Bowling Green in 2006."
Let the Season begin.
Permalink : Andis Kaulins : 8/28/2007 09:38:00 PM
General Predictions for the Upcoming College Football Season 2007
Caveat Emptor (Buyer Beware). We make our predictions in good fun out of interest for the sport. Please do not rely on our predictions to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our predictions, analysis or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy.
Take a look at some of the predictions for this season that we made already last year. Then let us turn to our predictions of a national champion.
PREDICTED NATIONAL CHAMPIONS 2007-2008
Predicted DIVISION I-A (FOOTBALL BOWL SUBDIVISION) - NEBRASKA
In spite of a having a team far better than its record, Nebraska lost a number of games last year because of poor coaching and one must hope that the Cornhusker coaching staff has learned some lessons in the interim. Last year's offensive coordinator for the Huskers, Jay Norvell, has taken a comparable post at UCLA, a team laden with talent, so we will see. Our comments on last year's offense at Nebraska are found here.
NU's new offensive coordinator, Shawn Watson, who comes to Lincoln from the Colorado Buffaloes, is a former colleague of Callahan's who apparently understands the West Coast offense - we hope so for the sake of the Huskers. We do think that Nebraska might have a stronger running game than expected, going back to the physical strengths which make teams dominant in college football and which marked the great Husker teams of the past.
Steven M. Sipple at the Lincoln Journal Star writes in Impressions from Fall Camp: "Pity the cornerback who has to take on Nebraska I-back Quentin Castille in the open field. The 6-foot-1, 245-pound freshman charges upfield like a runaway locomotive."
But really, can Callahan do it? Being a Nebraska alumnus, we see that the chances of Nebraska winning it all are not impossible, so we thought we might predict the improbable - for all you fans out there in Huskerland - Go Big Red.
USC is beatable and the Huskers play them at home on September 15, so if they vanquish the Trojans, the Huskers will surely be ranked in the top 5. But to become national champions, they would still have a long hard road ahead of them.
OK. If the Huskers do not win, who will? Everyone is picking USC, but based on last season, there are question marks. First, USC has to get by Nebraska, and we think the Huskers could win at home in Lincoln.
Or is this finally the year of the "Go Blue" Michigan breakthrough? In addition to the vastly improved defense instituted last year by new defensive coordinator Ron English, their former defensive back coach, Vance Bedford, has returned after nine years - and that may prove to be the critical difference. The Wolverines certainly have the talent this year, with two Heisman Trophy candidates, Chad Henne and Mike Hart and several more All-America caliber players. If Michigan head coach Lloyd Carr - who earned his spurs as a defensive assistant coach - would adapt the Wolverine game plan to the great offensive players he has and not play so conservatively, they might indeed win the national championship this year.
To do so, they would have to beat the Wisconsin Badgers, and that may become increasingly difficult if Bret Bielema picks up where he left off, becoming only the third NCAA coach ever to win 12 games in his first season as a head coach. On Wisconsin in 2007?
We think that the conference which is the most difficult to call in 2007 is the SEC, in spite of the fact that LSU is highly rated by everyone. We find it hard to understand that a team that loses its quarterback, the Nr. 1 pro football draft pick, plus three other players in the NFL first round draft, is then picked to play for the BCS title the next year, even though they did not make it when they had those top players. We think it not likely that LSU will be as good this year as last, and the same can be said for Arkansas and Florida, though Urban Meyer is a top coach and a force to be reckoned with, so that we would not be surprised at all at a Gators repeat. But the SEC is loaded with good teams and we think the conference is up for grabs. Auburn, Alabama (with new top coach Saban), Tennessee (the Rocky Top team is always loaded with top players) and Georgia (potentially the strongest team if they just had a top quarterback) all have a crack at the SEC crown and a national championship.
And what about the Big East? As we wrote about the most recent bowl game results:
"The Big East Conference was the only NCAA Division I-A Conference to win all of its bowl games and yet conference champion, Louisville, previously ranked 5th and 6th in the rankings, after defeating Atlantic Coast Conference champion Wake Forest in the Orange Bowl 24-13, dropped to 6th and 7th in the rankings. Sagarin's Predictor, the most accurate judge of a team's performance against other teams, would rank Louisville 3rd! Really, how good is Louisville? We really don't know because of this year's - in part -very unsatisfactory bowl matchups. The polls definitely do not reflect what went on in all the bowl games."
As Stewart Mandel has written about Louisville, a talented crop of players is returning and the only question is how they will adjust to their new coach Steve Kragthorpe. And then you have West Virginia and Rutgers, not to mention "the sleeper", Cincinnati, under a new coach.
No matter who wins, we think it will be a bit of surprise, since it may not be USC.
Predicted DIVISION I-AA (FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP SUBDIVISION) Champion - APPALACHIAN STATE MOUNTAINEERS
Under head coach Jerry Moore, Appalachian State is going for a national championship three-peat, having beaten Northern Iowa and Massachusetts for the title in 2005 and 2006. Unfortunately, Appalachian State will not go undefeated, because their first game is against Divsion I-A Michigan.
Predicted Division II Champion - CHADRON STATE COLLEGE EAGLES
Grand Valley State will also be going for a three-peat, triumphing in their 28th straight win by beating Northwest Missouri State in last season's finals 17-14, a team which had beaten Chadron State and its record-setting runner Danny Woodhead 28-21 in the semi-finals. Grand Valley is ranked Nr. 1 and Chadron State Nr. 5 in the D2 pre-season poll.
As we wrote at SportPundit last year:
"Here are our predictions for the upcoming 2007 football season:
1. Danny Woodhead of Chadron State, the 2006 season's winner of the Harlon Hill Trophy, will break the all-time NCAA career rushing record somewhere around midseason 2007."
Predicted Division III CHAMPION - MOUNT UNION PURPLE RAIDERS
The D3 preseason poll has Mount Union ranked Nr. 1 as the Purple Raiders also head for a three-peat in D3 football. Head coach Larry Kehres of the Purple Raiders, who we regard to be the best coach in college football, returns what may potentially be his best team ever, with seven starters each returning on offense and defense and 48 letter winners total. D3football.com writes:
"Since 1990, the Raiders have the most wins and best winning percentage in all of college football (216-10-1, .954)."
PREDICTED NAIA CHAMPION- CARROLL (MONTANA)
Sioux Falls (South Dakota) beat St. Francis (Indiana) last year in the final playoff game 23-19 in a game dominated by St. Francis: "St. Francis dominated in total yardage, 349-214, but lost three fumbles. Starting quarterback Eric Hooks was sacked four times." The preseason NAIA poll ranks Sioux Falls Nr. 1. From 2002 to 2005, Carroll (Montana) won the NAIA championship four years running. Head coach Mike Van Diest has decided to stay at Carroll, removing his name from the candidates for the post at Montana State, so that this is bound to be a great motivator for the team in 2007.
MOST IMPROVED TEAMS
To start out with, here are some of our opening - speculative - predictions about this 2007-2008 college football season:
1) We predict that one of the Most Improved Teams and Avantgarde Pioneers of the No-Huddle Spread Offense will be the Tulsa Golden Hurricane of Conference USA. ArmySports writes: "Tulsa might be the sexiest name in college football, but the Golden Hurricanes are still a damn good team."
Tulsa was a very good 8-5 last year and we predict a 12-1 season for them this year with their only loss probably going to Oklahoma in their third game on September 21, even though we think Oklahoma will have a tough time beating them if they are not perfectly prepared for high-speed football. Tulsa in our opinion will be ranked in the top 25 by season's end. Coaching is still the most important element in college football and Tulsa hit absolute paydirt due to the coaching changes made since last year. In spite of having lost a very good head coach in Steve Kragthorpe, who went to Louisville to replace Atlanta Falcons bound Bobby Petrino, we think that Tulsa has acquired a great head coach from Rice in Todd Graham and a great offensive coordinator from Arkansas in the person of Gus Malzahn. The result should be gold.
Graham turned a 1-11 team at Rice into a 7-5 bowl team in one year. As we wrote in SportPundit last year about Graham:
"In 2006, their new coach Todd Graham, the newly chosen Conference USA Coach of the Year, led the Owls to a 7-5 record and their first bowl game in 45 years. What a success story that is. There is such a thing as a "track record", at least in the case of Graham, whose Rice turnaround is the best in the NCAA this year. He has helped to do it before:
"At West Virginia University under head coach Rich Rodriguez, Graham helped the Mountaineers improve from a 3-8 mark to a 9-3 record in his second season. At Tulsa under Steve Kragthorpe, the Hurricane jumped from 1-11 in 2002 prior to his arrival, to an 8-4 record in '03. Both the WVU and Tulsa turnarounds were the best in NCAA Division I in those seasons.""
Tulsa will be using Malzahn's no-huddle spread offense and we think that Tulsa's success with this offense this year will change the face of football everywhere, leading to more no-huddle offenses and requiring opposing teams to develop new and better defensive strategies to deal with high-tech high-speed no-huddle football. The two coaches were first connected by video 10 years ago.
2) We think that the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors could go undefeated. Last year under its incomparably accurate-throwing quarterback, Colt Brennan, who proved virtually unstoppable, Hawaii lost only three games, in spite of higher total offense stats than the winners of those games, losing only through turnovers and weaknesses on defense, so that fewer turnovers and an improved defense could be the difference this year.
3) Alabama should surge under new head coach Nick Saban, who signed on for the Crimson Tide for a package making him the highest paid coach in college football. Saban is already exerting strong discipline.
4) Stanford, this writer's law school alma mater, should pick up more than 1 win this year under new coach Jim Harbaugh, but where is not clear, with one of the toughest schedules in the country. The AP writes:
"The players will flock to his personality," Raiders quarterback Marques Tuiasosopo said. "He's the type of coach they'll want to play for."
Harbaugh is a high-energy coach, unlike Teevens and Harris, and brings a level of excitement to Stanford that had been missing in recent years. He's known to join his players in drills and even pulled a muscle trying to outrun the quarterbacks with the Raiders when he was a coach.
"We like what he does offensively and we like what he does defensively," said Stanford quarterback T.C. Ostrander, who advised Bowlsby during the search. "He's enthusiastic. He loves the game. ... He brings a lot of new things to the table. I can't wait."
If the whole team has Ostrander's attitude, it is going to win several games in Stanford's new stadium, in which the Cardinal went winless in its first year in 2006. Indeed, we predict that to start out the season, they will ambush a vastly more talented UCLA Bruins team still struggling with a new west coast offense.
6) Duke and North Carolina should improve. As we wrote last year:
"John Bunting finished his last season as North Carolina head football coach as the Tar Heels cemented Duke's winless 0-12 season with a 45-44 victory. With Butch Davis taking over in 2007, the Tar Heels are sure to improve upon their 3-9 2006 season. Davis has coached or recruited 28 first round NFL draft choices. Duke coach Ted Roof redshirted two-thirds of his freshman class so look for Duke to pick up a win in 2006."
7) As we wrote about Buffalo to close out last year:
"Buffalo will win more than 2 games under now 2nd-year coach Turner Gill. In 2006 they beat Temple (1-11) in overtime 9-3 and upset 6-6 Kent State 41-14. For reasons previously stated at LawPundit, we expect Buffalo to develop into a football power under Gill's tutelage. One sign of things to come is a new series starting in 2007 with Baylor of the Big 12."
8) As we stated regarding Temple in 2006:
" Temple will win more than 1 game under now 2nd-year coach Al Golden, the former defensive coordinator at Virginia, who bravely took over as head coach in 2006 and whose Owls then snapped a 20-game losing streak with a 28-14 win over Bowling Green in 2006."
Let the Season begin.
Permalink : Andis Kaulins : 8/28/2007 09:38:00 PM
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