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College Football Game Predictions and Results for the Weekend of August 28, 2008 (Week 1 of the NCAA Season)
These are our SPRS-based predictions and results for the first week of college football in the 2008 / 2009 season, first posted August 25, and then updated regularly by the final scores. We do this because it interests us and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance of any kind on our prognostications. May the best team win. Our record for predictions of winners in the 1st week was 80-19 and we were 23-18 against the spread. When discussing current game results below, the abbreviation YPP = yards per play. All YPP values given below apply to the 2008 game just played, not to the 2007 season. The ratings in the left column, however, are still the final ratings from the 2007 season, since no comprehensive ratings exist yet for this year. However, few teams will change in strength too much from last year.
Permalink : Andis Kaulins : 8/29/2008 12:12:00 PM
College Football Game Predictions and Results for the Weekend of August 28, 2008 (Week 1 of the NCAA Season)
These are our SPRS-based predictions and results for the first week of college football in the 2008 / 2009 season, first posted August 25, and then updated regularly by the final scores. We do this because it interests us and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance of any kind on our prognostications. May the best team win. Our record for predictions of winners in the 1st week was 80-19 and we were 23-18 against the spread. When discussing current game results below, the abbreviation YPP = yards per play. All YPP values given below apply to the 2008 game just played, not to the 2007 season. The ratings in the left column, however, are still the final ratings from the 2007 season, since no comprehensive ratings exist yet for this year. However, few teams will change in strength too much from last year.
| College Football Game Matchups August 23 to September 1, 2008 (visitor v. home) Game below played on August 30 unless otherwise stated. The figure after each team is our rating for that team. NR means not rated in top 250 SPRS Ratings. The dash means minus, so that a rating of -4.0 is 3 worse than -1.0. A one point SPRS rating difference means 9 points on the scoreboard. | Betting Line (+ means home team is favored) College Football Prediction Tracker August 18, 2008 | Our Line and Predicted Score based on our SPRS RATINGS & RANKINGS | Actual Score | Win Loss vs. Winner | Win Loss vs. Spread |
| Fort Valley State (NR) v. Valdosta State -2.3 (August 23) | our line +48 actual +53 | Our Line +48 pts :: 0-48 Game score 56-3 YPP Valdosta 8.9 YPP Fort Valley State 2.8 The YPP makes Valdosta State 6.1 (8.9 minus 2.8) x 9 points better than Fort Valley State = 54.9 points. The result of 56-3 thus accurately reflects the relative strength of these two teams. See NAYPPA. | 3-56 | W | |
| Idaho -5.4 v. Arizona -1.1 | + 28 our line +41 actual +70 | +41 pts :: 7-48 A 1-point difference in SPRS ratings equals 9 points on the scoreboard so that Idaho rated -5.4 and Arizona -1.1 or a difference of 4.3, multiplied by 9 = 38.7. In addition, we use Sagarin's calculated home field advantage of 2.58 so that the full spread is 41.28 points. For ease of calculation we use 2.6. instead of 2.58. Arizona had the biggest victory of the weekend, winning 70-0. As for NAYPPA, YPP Arizona 6.5 YPP Idaho 2.2 Idaho had 5 turnovers to get blown completely off the map, but the YPP shows Arizona to be actually only about 4.3 (6.5 minus 2.2) x 9 = 38.7 points better than the Vandals, i.e. the final score exaggerates the relative strength of the two teams. The NAYPPA of 4.3 is the same as last year for both teams (5.4 minus 1.1). | 0-70 | W | W |
| Temple -4.6 v. Army -4.6 (August 29) | -7 | +3 pts :: 21-24 Our SPRS system rates these teams equal at -4.6, so we give the edge to the home team by 2.6 (or a field goal) +3 pts Army lost 35-7 even though they had a 15-minute edge in possession and piled up more yards total offense, but miscues were their main downfall. YPP Temple 4.7 YPP Army 3.9 By NAYPPA, Temple is 0.8 x 9 = 7.2 points, that is, 1 TD better than Army, in spite of the score. | 35-7 | L | L |
| Louisiana-Monroe -3.2 v. Auburn -0.7 | +27 our line +35 actual +34 | 2.5 x 9 = 22.5 pts + 2.6 home field advantage = +25 pts (BUT, Auburn has a new offensive coordinator who we think is worth 10 points more, so that we increase the spread to +35 pts :: 7-42) Auburn had a 5.6 to 3.2 YPP advantage over the Warhawks, making the Tigers NAYPPA 2.4 (5.6 minus 3.2) x 9 = about 22 points better by relative strength. | 0-34 | W | W |
| Wake Forest -1.2 v. Baylor -4.0 (August 28) | -12.5 our line -23 actual -28 | 2.8 x 9 = 25.2 - 2.6 home field advantage = -23 pts :: 30-7 New coach Art Briles had a tough opener as Riley Skinner threw 3 TDs and the defense forced 5 takeaways. The opportunist Demon Deacons continued their winning ways in spite of stats that were less than impressive: YPP Wake Forest 4.7 Baylor 3.9 by which the Bears are actually only 0.8 (4.7 minus 3.9) x 9 = 7.2 or 1 TD weaker than Wake Forest in terms of NAYPPA. Baylor thus already appears far improved over last year. | 41-13 | W | W |
| UTEP -4.5 v. Buffalo -4.0 (August 28) | +3 our line +7 actual +25 | 0.5 x 9 = 4.5 + 2.6 = +7 pts :: 35-42 The Bull's Drew Willy threw for 4 TDs as former Husker Turner Gill's program picks up steam. YPP Buffalo 7.3 YPP UTEP 4.2 By NAYPPA, the Bulls are 3.1 (7.2-4.2) x 9 = 27.9 points better than UTEP, so that this final score actually reflects the relative strengths of the two teams. | 17-42 | W | W |
| Michigan State -1.4 v. California -0.5 | +6 our line +11 actual +7 | 0.9 x 9 = 8.1 + 2.6 = +11 pts :: 30-41 We are not friends of the 3-4 front alignment in college football and the new 3-4 instituted by the Golden Bears this season showed how leaky it is as the clearly better team struggled to beat the Spartans, giving up 321 yards through the air with no sacks vs. 48 pass attempts. In college, the 3-4 gives the opposing passer too much time to throw. A top QB will cut this Golden Bear 3-4 defense to ribbons. YPP California 7.1 YPP Spartans 5.1 By NAYPPA, Cal is thus actually 2.0 x 9 = 18 points better than Michigan State, in spite of this game's only one TD advantage. | 31-38 | W | W |
| Alabama -1.5 v. Clemson -0.3 | +5.5 our line +13 (but we had serious doubts about this statistical spread out of last year) actual -24 | 1.2 x 9 = 10.8 +2.6 = +13 pts :: 21-34 (Saban's Alabama will be better this year but no one knows yet how much, so in spite of the stats, this may be a tough game to call) The Tide won 34-10 holding Clemson to 0 yards rushing so that 'Bama is back under Saban, although the offense is still weak: YPP Alabama 5.2 YPP Clemson 3.9 By NAYPPA, the Crimson Tide is 1.3 (5.2 minus 3.9) x 9 points = 12 points better than the Tigers. | 34-10 | L | L |
| Colorado -2.3 v. Colorado St. -3.4 (August 31) | -11.5 | 1.1 x 9 = 9.9 -2.6 = -7 pts :: 34-27 The Buffs are now clearly on their way via the rebuilding project by head coach Dan Hawkins. YPP Buffaloes 5.6 YPP 4.0 By NAYPPA, the Buffs are 1.6 (5.6 minus 4.0) x 9 points = 14 points better than the Rams. Compared to this game last year, the Buffs improved .1 on offense and .6 on defense | 38-17 | W | L |
| Virginia Tech -0.3 v. East Carolina -2.3 | -10 our line -16 actual +5 | 2.0 x 9 = 19 - 2.6 = -16 pts :: 30-14 The 27-22 win by the Pirates under head coach Skip Holtz, son of legendary Notre Dame coach Lou Holtz, was deserved: YPP Pirates 5.6 YPP Hodies 4.2 By NAYPPA, East Carolina is 1.4 (5.6 minus 4.2) x 9 points = 13 points better as a team. We were big on East Carolina last year until they lost inexplicably and badly to Marshall, but they recovered in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl by beating Boise State 41-38. | 22-27 | L | L |
| Hawaii -0.1 v. Florida +0.8 | +34.5 our line +11 actual +46 | 0.9 x 9 = 8.1 + 2.6 = +11 pts :: 38-49 In spite of the stats, this result is no surprise as Colt Brennan and head coach June Jones are gone so that Hawaii is much weaker this year than last. YPP Gators 7.4 YPP Warriors 3.8 By NAYPPA, Florida is 3.6 (7.4 minus 3.8) x 9 points = 32 points better than Hawaii | 10-56 | W | L |
| Western Kentucky -3.3 v. Indiana -2.1 | +21 our line +13 actual +18 | 1.2 x 9 = 10.8 + 2.6 = +13 pts :: 20-33 YPP Hoosiers 6.3 YPP Hilltoppers 4.5 By NAYPPA, Indiana is 1.8 (6.3 minus 4.5) x 9 points = 16 points better than Western Kentucky, so that this score result accurately reflects relative team strength. | 13-31 | W | W |
| Florida Intl. -5.5 v. Kansas +0.8 | +36.5 our line +59 actual +30 | 6.3 x 9 = 56.7 + 2.6 = +59 pts :: 0-59 YPP Jayhawks 4.4 (a very weak offense) YPP Golden Panthers 2.5 The NAYPPA spread was the same (1.9) as last year's Kansas average, but here against a much weaker opponent. By NAYPPA, Kansas is 1.9 (4.4 minus 2.5) x 9 points = 17 points better than Florida International. This Kansas team may not be as strong on offense as in 2007 whereas the defense is nearly intact. Florida International, which opens its new stadium on September 20, is definitely quite a bit stronger than last year through the influence of new offensive coordinator Bill Legg (from Purdue, which led the Big 10 in many offensive stats). | 10-40 | W | L |
| North Texas -5.7 v. Kansas State -1.7 | +25 our line +39 actual +39 | 4.0 x 9 = 36 + 2.6 = +39 pts :: 3-42 YPP Wildcats 6.0 YPP Mean Green 3.7 By NAYPPA, the Wildcats are 2.3 (6.0 minus 3.7) times 9 points = 21 points better in terms of relative team strength. | 6-45 | W | W |
| Boston College -0.1 v. Kent State - 4.3 | -10 our line -40 actual -21 | -4.2 x 9 = 37.8 - 2.6 = -40 pts :: 47-7 Any time you shut out a team in college football, that's great defense, which the Eagles also had last season. In this game: YPP Eagles 5.2 YPP Golden Flashes 4.6 In terms of NAYPPA, the Eagles are in fact only .6 (5.2 minus 4.6) x 9 points = 5.4 points stronger. | 21-0 | W | W |
| Mississippi St. -1.9 v. Louisiana Tech -4.1 | -9 our line -17 actual +8 | 2.2 x 9 = 19.2 - 2.6 = -17 pts :: 31-14 Five turnovers cost Mississippi State this game. YPP Miss. St. Bulldogs 4.9 YPP Louisiana Tech 3.7 By NAYPPA, Mississippi State is 1.2 (4.9 minus 3.7) x 9 points = 11 points better, so that this game was a legitimate upset of a stronger team by a weaker team. | 14-22 | L | L |
| Kentucky -0.9 v. Louisville -1.9 (August 31) | +5 | 1.0 x 9 = 9 - 2.6 = -6 pts :: 27-21 YPP Wildcats 3.3 YPP Cardinals 2.8 By NAYPPA, Kentucky is 0.5 (3.3. -2.8) x 9 points = 4.5 points better than Louisville. Either both of these teams have great defenses, or their offenses are extremely weak. The rest of the season will tell us. | 27-2 | W | W |
| Vanderbilt -2.0 v. Miami (Ohio) -3.1 (August 28) | +3.5 our line -7 actual -21 | 1.1 x 9 = 9.9 - 2.6 = -7 pts :: 17-10 (Vandy QB Chris Nickson rushed for 166 yards as RedHawks put up more total offense but fewer scores) | 34-13 | W | W |
| Utah -1.4 v. Michigan -0.9 | +4 our line +7 actual -2 | 0.5 x 9 = 4.5 + 2.6 = +7 pts :: 17-24 The Rich Rodriguez coaching era at Michigan got off to a disappointing start in a 25-23 loss to the Utes. The Michigan offense was dismal, although Utah is known for its stout defense. It is a case of a coach imposing a new offense on a team for which he does (yet) not have the right personnel. It might be a tough season for Michigan. YPP Utes 4.4 YPP Wolverines 3.2 By NAYPPA, Utah is 1.2 (4.4 minus 3.2) x 9 points = 10.8 points better than Michigan. | 25-23 | L | L |
| Troy State -1.8 v. Middle Tennessee -3.4 (August 28) | -6.5 our line -12 actual -14 | 1.6 x 9 = 14.4 - 2.6 = -12 pts :: 41-29 (DuJuan Harris ran for 3 TDs and 148 yards for the Trojans) | 31-17 | W | W |
| Northern Illinois -5.1 v. Minnesota -4.5 | +8.5 our line +8 actual +4 | 0.6 x 9 = 5.4 + 2.6 = +8 pts :: 36-44 | 27-31 | W | W |
| Memphis -4.3 v. Mississippi -2.3 | +9.5 our line +21 actual +17 | 2.0 x 9 = 18 + 2.6 = +21 pts :: 21-42 | 24-41 | W | W |
| Illinois - 0.6 v. Missouri + 0.4 | +8.5 our line +12 actual +10 | 1.0 x 9 = 9 +2.6 = +12 pts :: 33-45 Last year, Missouri won by six 40-32 on the road, hence nothing much has changed, although the NAYPPA even gives the Illini a small advantage: YPP Missouri 6.7 YPP Illini 6.9 Against USC last year, Illinois had a YPP of 6.1 while USC had a YPP of 7.8, which we figure makes USC about 1 YPP better than Missouri. | 42-52 | W | W |
| Western Michigan -4.0 v. Nebraska -1.5 | +14 our line +25 adjusted line +39 actual +23 | 2.5 x 9 = 22.5 + 2.6 = +25 pts We do not understand the official spread here as even last season's performance would warrant a 4 TD difference, and with the AD and coaching changes of the Huskers under Osborne and Pelini, we think that is worth another 2 TDs, so that we make the spread here +39 points :: 13-52 (Cornhuskers won but the pass coverage was leaky and the offense sputtered after a good start due to poor playcalling, also maybe wilting in the heat. Rushing defense looked solid, allowing only 8 yards, but the pass rush and defensive secondary must improve.) YPP Nebraska 7.2 YPP Broncos 4.7 By NAYPPA, the Huskers are 2.5 (7.2 minus 4.7) x 9 points = 23 points better so that the result accurately reflects the relative strength of these two teams. | 24-47 | W | W |
| TCU -1.7 v. New Mexico -1.6 | -6.5 our line +3 actual -23 | 0.1 x 9 = 0.9 + 2.6 = +3 pts :: 14-17 | 26-3 | L | L |
| Syracuse -4.3 v. Northwestern -2.6 | +12 our line +18 actual +20 | 1.7 x 9 = 15.3 + 2.6 = +18 pts :: 20-38 | 10-30 | W | W |
| Washington -2.6 v. Oregon -0.2 | +14 our line +24 actual +34 | 2.4 x 9 = 21.6 + 2.6 = +24 pts :: 17-41 Based on this game, the Oregon defense appears strong and the Washington defense weak: YPP Ducks 6.9 YPP Huskies 3.1 By NAYPPA, Oregon is 3.8 (6.9 minus 3.1) x 9 points = 34 points better, which corresponds to the margin of victory in this game. Oregon lost its starting QB in this game and offense continues to be their problem-child. | 10-44 | W | W |
| Bowling Green -3.3 v. Pittsburgh -1.5 | +12 our line +19 actual -10 | 1.8 x 9 = 16.2 + 2.6 = +19 pts :: 17-36 Bowling Green was humbled 63-7 by Tulsa to close out the last season but returned here in 2008 with a vengeance, upsetting Pittsburgh, who committed four turnovers. YPP Panthers 4.6 YPP Falcons 3.6 By NAYPPA, Pitt should not have lost this game. | 27-17 | L | L |
| SMU -5.2 v. Rice (August 29) -5.5 | +3 our line +1 actual +29 | 0.3 x 9 = 2.7 - 2.6 = 0 points so we give the advantage to the home team +1 pts :: 35-36 (New SMU head coach June Jones - from Hawaii - had a rude awakening as the Mustangs had 5 turnovers, while the Owls rolled up 466 yards total offense ) | 27-56 | W | L |
| Fresno State -1.9 v. Rutgers (September 1) -0.4 | +5.5 | 1.5 x 9 = 13.5 + 2.6 = + 16 pts :: 14-30 Rutgers destructed in the 2nd half after the game was tied 0-0 at the intermission to lose 24-7. YPP Bulldogs 6.7 YPP Scarlet Knights 5.1 By NAYPPA, Fresno State is 1.6 (6.7 minus 5.1) x 9 points = 14 points better than Rutgers, so that the final score reflects the actual relative strength of the two teams. | 24-7 | L | L |
| NC State -2.4 v. South Carolina -1.2 (August 28) | +11 our line +13 actual +34 | 1.2 x 9 = 10.8 + 2.6 = +13 pts :: 21-34 The Gamecocks struggled with 4 interceptions until backup QB Chris Smelley led three fourth-quarter TD drives YPP Gamecocks 5.3 YPP Wolfpack 2.4 By NAYPPA, South Carolina is 2.9 (5.3 minus 2.4) x 9 points = 26 points better than the Wolfpack. | 0-34 | W | W |
| Louisiana-Lafayette -3.4 v. Southern Miss -3.4 | +11 our line +3 actual +30 | 0 x 9 = 0, the teams are even, +2.6 home field = +3 pts :: 24-27 | 21-51 | W | L |
| Oregon State -0.7 v. Stanford -3.3 (August 28) | -3 our line -21 actual +8 | 2.6 x 9 = 23.4 - 2.6 = -21 pts :: 35-14 (Toby Gerhart ran for 147 yards as gritty Stanford under head coach Jim Harbaugh lost the total offense contest 490 to 301 but won the scoreboard and turnover battle). Harbaugh is a great coach, winning games he has no business winning, like this one. YPP Beavers 6.0 YPP Cardinal 4.6 By NAYPPA, Oregon State is a hands down 1.4 (6.0 minus 4.6) x 9 points = 13 point better team, but they lost by 8 points, 36-28. | 28-36 | L | L |
| Florida Atlantic -2.2 v. Texas -0.1 | +23.5 our line +30 actual +42 | 2.3 x 9 = 20.7 +2.6 = +23 pts but the new defensive coordinator from Auburn is worth 7 at least so that we call it +30 pts :: 7-37 YPP Longhorns 6.2 YPP Owls 4.7 By NAYPPA, Texas is 1.5 (6.2 minus 4.7) x 9 points = 14 points better in terms of relative team strength. This is not surprising considering that Florida Atlantic has a top head coach in Howard Schnellenberger, so that the Owls are a constantly improving team. | 10-52 | W | W |
| Arkansas State -3.5 v. Texas A&M -2.0 | +20 our line +16 actual -4 | 1.5 x 9 = 13.5 +2.6 = +16 pts :: 17-33 Did Arkansas State win this upset battle legitimately? The answer is yes, as the NAYPPA shows. YPP Red Wolves 5.7 YPP Aggies 4.8 By NAYPPA, the Red Wolves are 0.9 (5.7 minus 4.8) x 9 points = 8.1 points better than Texas A&M | 18-14 | L | W |
| Tulsa -1.5 v. UAB -5.4 | -14.5 our line 33 actual 23 | 3.9 x 9 = 35.1 - 2.6 = -33 pts :: 60-27 (the nation's best offense meets one of the nation's worst defenses) YPP Tulsa 9.5 YPP UAB 6.2 The Golden Hurricane has a terrible defense but a golden offense. The NAYPPA of 3.3 (9.5 minus 6.2) x 9 points = 29.7 points accurately reflects the relative strength of these two teams. | 45-22 | W | W |
| Tennessee -0.8 v. UCLA -1.4 (September 1) | -6 | 0.6 x 9 = 5.4 - 2.6 = -3 pts :: 20-17 The game was tied 24-24 at the end of regulation time in a wild finish on both sides- In spite of UCLA having been intercepted 4 times in the 1st half, UCLA QB Kevin Craft played a fine game in the 2nd half as UCLA won in overtime 27-24. YPP Volunteers 4.9 YPP Bruins 3.9 By NAYPPA, Tennessee is 1.0 (4.9 minus 3.9) x 9 points s= 9 points better, but here the turnovers in the first half played a great role in skewing the numbers. | 24-27 | L | W |
| Utah State -5.1 v. UNLV -3.7 | +12.5 our line +15 actual +10 | 1.4 x 9 = 12.6 + 2.6 = +15 pts :: 27-42 | 17-27 | W | L |
| USC (Southern Cal) +0.9 v. Virginia -1.3 | -19.5 our line -17 actual -45 | 2.2 x 9 = 19.2 - 2.6 = -17 pts :: 14-31 YPP Trojans 7.2 YPP Cavaliers 3.3 The NAYPPA is 3.9 making USC 3.9 x 9 points = 35 points better than Virginia. See now our discussion of the Ohio State game below. Together with that discussion, which places Ohio State at a calibrated rating of +1.2 for this year, just as last year, the question then becomes, is the 1.7 NAYPPA increase for USC in this game from a 2.2 difference to a 3.7 difference to be accounted for by an improved USC team (how much?) and a vastly weaker Virginia team. We will know more in two weeks when USC and the Buckeyes meet on the field. | 52-7 | W | L |
| Oklahoma State -0.9 v. Washington State -1.5 | -6 our line -3 actual -26 | 0.6 x 9 = 5.4 - 2.6 = -3 pts :: 34-31 YPP Cowboys 5.3 YPP Cougars 3.3 By NAYPPA, Oklahoma State is 2.0 (5.3 minus 3.3) x 9 points = 18 points better than the Cougars. | 39-13 | W | L |
| Akron -4.0 v. Wisconsin -1.6 | +26 our line +24 actual +21 | 2.4 x 9 = 21.6 +2.6 = +24 pts :: 7-31 | 17-38 | W | W |
| Ohio -3.8 v. Wyoming -2.7 | +10 our line +13 actual +1 | 1.1 x 9 = 9.9 +2.6 = +13 pts :: 7-20 | 20-21 | W | L |
| Eastern Illinois -5.2 v. Central Michigan -2.8 (August 28) | our line +24 actual +19 | 2.4 x 9 = 21.6 +2.6 = +24 pts :: 24-48 (Central Michigan won its first season opener since 2002) | 12-31 | W | |
| Indiana State NR v. Eastern Michigan -5.1 (August 28) | our line +14 actual +52 | +14 pts :: 21-35 (The Eagles were stronger than expected and rolled up over 637 yards total offense) | 0-52 | W | |
| Northeastern -4.9 v. Ball State -3.1 (August 28) | our line +19 actual +34 | 1.8 x 9 = 16.2 - 2.6 = +19 pts :: 20-39 (Northeastern had 8 minutes more ball possession but could not turn it into scores) | 14-48 | W | |
| Eastern Kentucky -4.5 v. Cincinnati -0.8 (August 28) | our line +36 actual +33 | 3.7 x 9 = 33.3 - 2.6 = +36 pts :: 13-49 (Bearcats Dustin Grutza was 21 of 28, 296 yds and 3 TDs ) YPP Bearcats 7.1 YPP Colonels 4.2 By NAYPPA, Cincinnati is 2.9 (7.1 minus 4.2) x 9 points = 26 points better than Eastern Kentucky. | 7-40 | W | |
| Jacksonville St. NR v. Georgia Tech -1.7 (August 28) | our line +45 actual +27 | +45 pts :: 7-52 (QB Ryan Perrilloux, fallen from grace at LSU, kept Gamecocks closer than line ) | 14-41 | W | |
| Charleston S. NR v. Miami of Florida -2.2 (August 28) | our line +42 actual +45 | +42 pts :: 6-48 (Hurricanes debut is successful in Dolphin Stadium under true freshman QB Jacob Harris) | 7-52 | W | |
| Hofstra -3.1 v. Connecticut - 1.9 (August 28) | our line +13 actual +32 | 1.2 x 9 = 10.8 - 2.6 = +13 pts :: 23-36 (Donald Brown of UConn scored 4 TDs in the first half) | 3-35 | W | |
| South Dakota State -3.3 v. Iowa State - 3.7 (August 28) | our line -1 actual +27 | 0.4 x 9 = 3.6 - 2.6 = -1 pts :: 24-23 (Is Gene Chizik finally getting the Cyclones moving? Six turnovers - 5 interceptions for 202 yards - doom Jackrabbits) YPP Iowa State 6.4 YPP South Dakota State 5.6 | 17-44 | L | |
| August 28 | |||||
| Shorter NR v. Western Carolina - 5.8 | our line +14 actual +35 | +14 pts :: 17-31 | 0-35 | W | |
| Henderson St. - 4.6 v. Central Arkansas - 4.7 | our line +2 actual +24 | 0.1 x 9 = 0.9 - 2.6 = +2 pts :: 28-30 (FCS I-AA Bears beat Division II Reddies as Nathan Brown threw for 367 yards) | 14-38 | W | |
| Texas A&M Kingsville NR v. North Dakota - 1.8 | our line +45 actual +26 | +45 pts :: 10-55 (Chris Mussman won his debut as UND head coach as Sioux this year enter Division I) | 14-40 | W | |
| Austin Peay NR v. North Dakota St. - 1.4 | our line +49 actual +35 | +49 pts :: 7-56 (Austin Peay was 7-4 last year so NDS has a strong team again this year as QB Nick Mertens went 16 of 18 for 304 yards in 1st career start) YPP North Dakota State 7.7 YPP Austin Peay 1.9 By NAYPPA, North Dakota State is 5.8 (7.7 minus 1.9) x 9 points = 52 points better than Austin Peay. | 6-41 | W | |
| Gardner-Webb -4.4 v. Tennessee Tech | our line -14 actual +16 | -14 pts :: 37-23 (Gardner-Webb put up 515 yards total offense but could not get the ball into the end zone - redzone play-calling is critical) | 12-28 | L | |
| Montana-Western - 5.1 v. Weber St. -4.4 | our line +9 actual +56 | 0.7 x 9 = 6.3 + 2.6 = +9 pts :: 17-26 Weber State of Division I-AA (FCS), 5-6 last year, put up 535 yards total offense to crush Montana-Western of the NAIA. | 6-62 | W | |
| August 29 | |||||
| Marist NR v. San Diego -4.5 | our line +17 actual +18 | +17 pts :: 14-31 | 22-40 | W | |
| August 30 | |||||
| Maine -4.9 v. Iowa -2.4 | our line +25 actual +43 | 2.5 x 9 = 22.5 + 2.6 = +25 pts :: 10-35 | 3-46 | W | |
| Youngstown St. - 3.6 v. Ohio State +1.2 | our line +46 actual +43 | 4.8 x 9 = 43.2 + 2.6 = +46 pts :: 3-49 YPP Buckeyes 6.7 YPP Penguins 1.9 The 4.8 (6.7 minus 1.9) NAYPPA makes Ohio State 43 points better than Youngstown State (4.8 x 9 points) so that this result in 2008 accurately reflects the relative strength of these two teams, which was EXACTLY THE SAME in 2007. Hence, in creating new SPRS ratings for college football teams in the course of this year, we can use the SPRS ratings for Ohio State and Youngstown state as calibrating benchmarks without having to wait for the entire season to pass to have accurate results. | 0-43 | W | |
| Coastal Carolina NR v. Penn State -0.7 | our line +50 actual +56 | +50 pts :: 7-57 This was a blowout victory, but over a much weaker team, not even ranked in the top 250. YPP Nittany Lions 8.6 YPP Chanticleers 4.0 By NAYPPA, Penn State is 4.6 (8.6 minus 4.0) x 9 points = 41 points better. | 10-66 | W | |
| Georgia Southern - 3.1 v. Georgia + 0.3 | our line +33 actual +24 | 3.4 x 9 = 30.6 + 2.6 = +33 pts :: 7-40 The final score of 45-21 does not back a No. 1 ranking for Georgia YPP Georgia 9.1 YPP Georgia Southern 4.1 However, by NAYPPA, Georgia is much stronger than this score indicates, as 5. 0 (9.1 minus 4.1) x 9 points = 45 points relative greater team strength. | 21-45 | W | |
| Monmouth NR v. Rhode Island - 5.9 | our line +14 actual +3 | +14 pts :: 20-34 | 24-27 | W | |
| Southern Utah -5.7 v. Air Force -1.4 | our line +41 actual +34 | 4.3 x 9 = 38.7 +2.6 = +41 pts :: 10-51 YPP Falcons 5.8 YPP Thunderbirds 3.0 By NAYPPA, the Falcons are 2.8 (5.8 minus 3.0) x 9 points = 25 points better than the Thunderbirds. | 7-41 | W | |
| SE Louisiana - 5.8 v. Alcorn State NR | our line -14 actual -6 | -14 pts :: 28-14 | 34-28 | W | |
| Adams State NR v. Montana State -4.6 | our line +14 actual +56 | +14 pts :: 17-31 | 3-59 | W | |
| Villanova -3.3 v. West Virginia +1.2 | our line +43 actual +27 | 4.5 x 9 = 40.5 + 2.6 = +43 pts :: 6-49 YPP Mountaineers 6.3 YPP Wildcats 4.6 By NAYPPA, West Virginia is nowhere near as strong as last year, here at 1.7 (6.3 minus 4.6) x 9 points = 15 points better than Villanova. | 21-48 | W | |
| Towson -5.2 v. Navy -2.9 | our line +23 actual +28 | 2.3 x 9 = 20.7 + 2.6 = +23 pts :: 26-49 | 13-41 | W | |
| Delaware -2.5 v. Maryland -2.1 | our line +6 actual +7 | 0.4 x 9 = 3.6 + 2.6 = +6 pts :: 28-34 | 7-14 | W | |
| Western Oregon - 4.6 v. Portland St. - 5.2 | our line -3 actual +17 | 0.6 x 9 = 5.4 - 2.6 = -3 pts :: 38-35 | 14-31 | L | |
| Illinois State - 5.1 v. Marshall - 3.5 | our line +17 actual +25 | 1.6 x 9 = 14.4 + 2.6 = +17 pts :: 24-41 | 10-35 | W | |
| Appalachian State - 1.6 v. LSU + 0.9 | our line +25 actual +28 | 2.5 x 9 = 22.5 + 2.6 = +25 pts :: 30-55 YPP Tigers 7.2 YPP Mountaineers 3.9 By NAYPPA, LSU is 3.2 (7.2 minus 3.9) x 9 points = 29 points better so that this score represents the true relative strength of the two teams. | 13-41 | W | |
| McNeese State - 2.7 v. North Carolina -2.0 | our line +9 actual +8 | 0.7 x 9 = 6.3 + 2.6 = +9 pts :: 24-33 UNC wide receiver Brandon Tate accounted for 397 all purpose yards as the Tar Heels luckily squeaked by a tough | 27-35 | W | |
| Albany -5.5 v. Massachusetts -1.5 | our line +39 actual +12 | 4.0 x 9 = 36 - 2.6 = +39 pts :: 10-49 | 16-28 | W | |
| Mars Hill NR v. Furman - 3.9 | our line +30 actual +48 | +30 pts :: 14-44 | 14-62 | W | |
| Northern Iowa - 1.9 v. BYU -0.2 | our line +18 actual +24 | 1.7 x 9 = 15.3 +2.6 = +18 pts :: 7-25 Max Kall passed for 468 yards for BYU who now hold the longest winning streak in Division I football, 11 games. YPP Cougars 8.2 YPP Panthers 5.6 By NAYPPA, BYZ is 2.6 (8.2 minus 5.6) x 9 points = 23 points better, so that the final score here reflects the accurate relative strength of these two teams. Last year, Northern Iowa was 12-1, but lost key players to graduation. | 17-41 | W | |
| S. Carolina St. - 3.2 v. UCF - 1.5 | our line +18 actual +17 | 1.7 x 9 = 15.3 + 2.6 = +18 pts = 24-42 | 0-17 | W | |
| Colgate - 5.0 v. Stony Brook - 5.1 | our line +2 actual -16 | 0.1 x 9 = 0.9 - 2.6 = +2 pts :: 31-33 | 42-26 | L | |
| Virginia St. NR v. Norfolk St. - 5.8 | our line +14 actual +40 | +14 pts :: 14-28 | 7-47 | W | |
| Southern - 5.2 v. Houston - 2.7 | our line +25 actual +52 | 2.5 x 9 = 22.5 - 2.6 = +25 pts :: 17-42 | 3-55 | W | |
| Richmond - 2.5 v. Elon - 3.6 | our line -7 actual -18 | 1.1 x 9 = 9.9 - 2.6 = -7 pts :: 24-17 | 28-10 | W | |
| Chattanooga - 4.8 v. Oklahoma + 0.8 | our line +53 actual +55 | 5.6 x 9 = 50.4 + 2.6 = +53 pts :: 6-59 The Sooners led 50-0 at the half and for the game held the Mocs to 3 first downs. The Sooner defense appears to be better than last year, which is a necessity given the blowout loss to West Virginia last year, whereas the offense will be about the same. YPP Sooners 5.8 YPP Mocs 0.7 By NAYPPA, Oklahoma is 5.1 (5.8 minus 0.7) x 9 = 46 points better. | 2-57 | W | |
| Eastern Washington -3.0 v. Texas Tech +0.2 | our line +31 actual +25 | 3.2 x 9 = 28.8 +2.6 = +31 pts :: 20-51 QB Graham Harrell of the Red Raiders threw for 536 yards. YPP Texas Tech 7.7 YPP Eagles 4.3 The NAYPPA of 3.1 (7.7 minus 4.3) corresponds to the NAYPPA of 3.2 for 2007 so that this game well reflects the relative strength of the two teams. | 24-49 | W | |
| Tennessee St. -5.9 v. Alabama A&M -4.8 | our line +13 actual -21 | 1.1 x 9 = 9.9 + 2.6 = +13 pts :: 27-40 | 34-13 | L | |
| Webber v. Citadel -3.4 | our line 35 actual 47 | +35 pts :: 7-42 | 7-54 | W | |
| North Greenville NR v. Liberty - 3.5 | our line 35 actual 39 | +35 pts :: 13-48 | 10-49 | W | |
| East Central NR v. Sam Houston St. - 4.2 | our line 28 actual 44 | +28 pts :: 14 -42 (It was no contest as the Bearkats led 52-0 at the half) | 14-58 | W | |
| Angelo St. NR v. Texas St. - 6.1 | our line 14 actual 7 | +14 pts :: 17-31 | 14-21 | W | |
| James Madison -2.2 v. Duke - 4.2 | 2.0 x 9 = 18 - 2. 6 = -15 pts. :: 35-20 | 7-31 | L | ||
| Western Illinois -3.3 v. Arkansas + 0.1 | our line 33 actual 4 | 3.4 x 9 = 30.6 + 2.6 = +33 pts :: 14-47 New head coach Bobby Petrino from the Atlanta Falcons nearly had disaster strike as the Razorbacks narrowly escaped a stunning loss to Western Illinois, rallying from a 24-14 4th quarter deficit. YPP Razorbacks 6.4 YPP Leathernecks 3.6 The NAYPPA point to an Arkansas team which is 2.8 (6.4 minus 3.6) x 9 points = 25 points better than Western Illinois. Given the bare 4-point actual margin, three TDs were not made that should have been made, and that is a coaching problem. | 24-28 | W | |
| Presbyterian -6.1 v. Wofford -3.1 | our line 30 actual 17 | 3.0 x 9 = 27 +2.6 = +30 pts :: 14-44 | 21-38 | W | |
| Tenn-Martin -5.7 v. South Florida -0.4 | our line 50 actual 49 | 5.3 x 9 = 47.7 + 2.6 = +50 pts :: 9-59 YPP Bulls 7.3 YPP Skyhawks 1.8 By NAYPPA, South Florida is 5.5 (7.3 minus 1.8) x 9 points = 50 points better than Tennessee Martin. This corresponds to last year exactly and is also verified in the final score of this game, so that the exact relative strength of these teams is confirmed. These teams can thus be used for calibration of the strength of other teams. | 6-57 | W | |
| St. Ambrose NR v. South Dakota - 2.5 | our line 49 actual 52 | +49 pts :: 7-56 | 0-52 | W | |
| Texas Southern NR v. Prairie View A&M - 5.6 | our line 14 actual 20 | +14 pts :: 21-35 | 14-34 | W | |
| UC Davis -4.8 v. San Jose St. -3.5 | our line 14 actual 3 | 1.3 x 9 = 11.7 + 2.6 = +14 pts :: 23-37 YPP Davis 4.0 YPP San Jose St. 4.7 | 10-13 | W | |
| Idaho St - 6.4 v. Boise St. - 1.7 | our line 45 actual 42 | 4.7 x 9 = 42.3 + 2.6 = +45 pts :: 7-52 YPP Broncos 8.8 YPP Bengals 3.0 | 7-49 | W | |
| Grambling St. -4.7 v. Nevada -3.0 | our line +18 actual +36 | 1.7 x 9 = 15.3 + 2.6 = +18 pts :: 24-42 YPP Nevada 7.4 YPP Grambling State 3.9 | 13-49 | W | |
| Cal Poly -3.7 v. San Diego St. - 3.6 | our line +3 actual -2 | 0.1 x 9 = 0.9 + 2.6 = 3 pts :: 34-36 YPP Cal Poly 6.7 YPP San Diego State 5.6 | 29-27 | L | |
| Northern Arizona -4.6 v. Arizona St. -0.6 | our line +39 actual +17 | 4.0 x 9 = 36 + 2.6 = +39 pts :: 14-53 Are the Sun Devils better than this score indicates? Yes they are. YPP Arizona State 8.2 YPP Lumberjacks 3.9 By NAYPPA, Arizona State is 4.3 (8.2 minus 3.9) x 9 points = 39 points better in terms of relative team strength this year. The game got closer as first-team backups played in the 4th quarter for Arizona State and did not do a very good job, showing that the team lacks depth. | 13-30 | W | |
| August 31 | |||||
| Jackson State -4.4 v. Hampton - 6.0 | 1.6 x 9 = 14.4 - 2.6 = -12 pts :: 33-21 | 13-17 | L | ||
| Dayton - 4.4 v. Central St. NR | -21 pts :: 35-14 YPP Dayton 5.1 YPP Central St. 2.9 By NAYPPA, the Flyers are 2.2 (5.1 minus 2.9) x 9 points = 20 points better than the Marauders. The final score reflects the actual relative strength of the two teams. | 31-12 | W |
Permalink : Andis Kaulins : 8/29/2008 12:12:00 PM
