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Saturday, November 29, 2008--Andis Kaulins [11/29/2008 05:15:00 PM] - Home - About - Our Book
Mirror mirror on the Wall, Who's the Best Team of them All? Not Alabama. Substantial Changes Need to be Made in the College Football Rating Systems
Not all is well in college football country as the football polls of the AP, USA Today, the Harris Poll and the BCS are wreaking havoc throughout the land. It is OK to follow such "polls" as long as one does not take them seriously. But really, who is truly best team in the land?
Should an 11-0 Alabama team that has deftly slipped its way through a weak schedule be ranked Number One in the nation? No way - if we look at objective criteria. Of all ranked teams at the very top, for example, except for Boise State and Ball State, the Crimson Tide competition this year has the WORST comparative won-loss record.
The Strongest Conferences
First of all there is the question of the strongest conferences this year.
Massey computer analysis ranks the ACC first (1.939), the Big 12 second (1.934), with the SEC a relatively distant 3rd (1.880), the Big East fourth (1.776), the Big 10 fifth (1.741), and the Mountain West sixth (1.722).
Sagarin uses an arithmetical trick (the central mean) to rank the ACC first, the Big 12 second, the SEC third, the Big 10 fourth, the Big East fifth, the Pac-10 seventh, the Mountain West eighth, the Mid-American ninth, the Western Athletic tenth, and Conference USA eleventh, but in fact, the simplest method used by Sagarin (the simple average) in fact gives the Big 12 conference the edge over the ACC. Which do you use? Even here, politics is at play.
Alabama and Florida are rated one and two in the country by the AP poll and one and three by the USA Today coaches poll. However, that rating is not justified by the strength of their conference, which is substantially weaker than the ACC or the Big 12.
In the one matchup of the SEC and the Big 12 during the regular season, Texas annihilated Arkansas 52-10, handing the Razorbacks their worst defeat of the season.
As far as the SEC goes, Virginia Tech, which beat Nebraska 35-30, still has a chance to be in the ACC title game if they beat Virginia [update: they did]. Nebraska has been beaten badly by Big 12 top teams, and that tells us a lot.
What about team individual performance?
Is there anything in that team performance to warrant such a high rank?
What about the Predictor and the Margin of Victory?
By something Sagarin calls the PREDICTOR or "pure points" because it is more accurate than the other methods that he discusses for predicting the outcome of games, the top 25 individual ranking of teams is as follows:
1. USC
2. Florida
3. Penn State
4. Texas
5. Oklahoma
6. Texas Tech
7. Missouri
8. Alabama
9. Ohio State
10. Iowa
11. TCU
12. Oregon State
13. Oklahoma State
14. Utah
15. Boise State
16. California
17. Mississippi
18. Georgia
19. Boston College
20. Florida State
21. Arizona
22. Clemson
23. Oregon
24. Nebraska
25. Ball State
We can compare that to the Margin of Victory (MOV) rankings at Massey Ratings:
1. Texas
2. Oklahoma
3. Texas Tech
4. Florida
5. USC
6. Penn State
7. Alabama
8. Oklahoma State
9. Boise State
10. Ohio State
11. Utah
12. Missouri
13. TCU
14. Ball State
15. Georgia
16. Oregon State
17. Nebraska
18. Cincinnati
19. Michigan State
20. Mississippi
21. Boston College
22. Florida State
23. Iowa
24. Oregon
25. BYU
The betting point spread is determined by rankings such as those above and not by the popularity-contest political polls such as the AP sportswriters and broadcasters poll, USA Today coaches poll, the Harris interactive conglomeration poll or the errant BCS ratings (as based mostly on the political polls), the latter of which seems to serve mostly various purposes of money-making.
Alabama ranks only 8th and 7th in pure points and margin of victory. Accordingly, comparative scores are not at the root of the Alabama Number One ranking. So what then has caused the pollsters to rank Alabama at the top? Respect for the talents of Nick Saban as head coach? Polls should not be head coach popularity contests but should be based on performance alone.
Who has Alabama beaten?
Alabama beat Clemson 34-10 - Clemson is 6-5 and has beaten no ranked team
Alabama beat Tulane 20-6, a team with a 2-9 record beaten by Tulsa 56-7 and even Army 44-13
Alabama beat Western Kentucky 41-7 (2-9) which lost to the worst team in Division I, North Texas, 51-40.
Alabama beat Arkansas 49-14 (5-7), which also lost to Texas 52-10.
Alabama beat Georgia 41-30 (9-2), which lost to Florida 49-10.
Alabama beat Kentucky 17-14 (6-5) ,which lost to Florida 63-5 and also to Vanderbilt 31-24
Alabama beat Mississippi 24-20 (8-4), which also lost to Vanderbilt 23-17
Alabama beat Tennessee 29-9 (4-7), which also lost to Wyoming 13-7
Alabama beat Arkansas State 35-0 (5-5), which also lost to Florida International 21-22
Alabama beat LSU (7-5) in overtime 27-21, a team that lost to Florida 51-21
Alabama beat Mississippi State (4-8) 32-7, a team that also lost to Louisiana Tech
Alabama plays Florida on December 6
Alabama has scored 35 TDs and allowed 15 in in facing an opposition with a combined NEGATIVE won-lost record of 59-66. Massey Ratings ranks the Alabama strength of schedule at 41st. Sagarin ranks the Crimson Tide schedule difficulty at 65th nationally.
Anyone who ranks Alabama as Number One in the country has simply not done his homework because there is no empirical basis at all to rank Alabama that highly, except for the ever-present political SEC bias.
Compare Oklahoma 10-1
Oklahoma beat Chattanooga (1-11) 57-2
Oklahoma beat Cincinnati (9-2) 52-26, champion of the Big East and a BCS bowl team this year
Oklahoma beat Washington (0-11) 55-14
Oklahoma beat TCU (10-2) 35-10
Oklahoma beat Baylor (4-7) 49-17
Oklahoma lost to Texas (11-1) 45-35
Oklahoma beat Kansas (6-5) 45-31
Oklahoma beat Kansas State (5-7) 58-35
Oklahoma beat Nebraska (8-4) 62-28
Oklahoma beat Texas A&M (4-8) 66-28
Oklahoma beat Texas Tech (10-1) 65-21
Oklahoma has scored 78 TDs and allowed 31 in facing opposition with a combined won-lost record of 68-59. Massey Ratings ranks the Sooner schedule difficulty 6th in the nation, Sagarin ranks it 25th.
Compare Texas 11-1
Texas beat Florida Atlantic (5-6) 52-10
Texas beat UTEP (5-7) 42-13
Texas beat Rice (8-3) 52-10
Texas beat Arkansas (5-7) 52-10
Texas beat Colorado (5-7) 38-14
Texas beat Oklahoma (10-1) 45-35
Texas beat Missouri (9-2) 56-31
Texas beat Oklahoma State (9-2) 28-24
Texas lost to Texas Tech (10-1) 33-39
Texas beat Baylor (4-7) 45-21
Texas beat Kansas (6-5) 35-7
Texas beat Texas A&M (4-8) 49-9
Texas has scored 66 TDs and allowed 25 in facing opposition with a combined won-lost record of 80-56. Massey Ratings ranks the Longhorn schedule difficulty 1st in the nation, Sagarin ranks it 5th.
Compare Texas Tech 10-1
Texas Tech beat Eastern Washington (6-5) 49-24
Texas Tech beat Nevada (6-5) 35-19
Texas Tech beat SMU (1-10) 43-7
Texas Tech beat Massachusetts (7-5) 56-14
Texas Tech beat Kansas State (5-7) 58-28
Texas Tech beat Nebraska (8-4) 37-31
Texas Tech beat Texas A&M (4-8) 43-25
Texas Tech beat Kansas (6-5) 63-21
Texas Tech beat Texas (11-1) 39-33
Texas Tech beat Oklahoma State (9-2) 56-20
Texas Tech lost to Oklahoma (10-1) 21-65
Texas Tech has scored 66 TDs and allowed 33 in facing opposition with a combined won-lost record of 73-53. Massey Ratings ranks the Red Raider schedule 10th in the nation, Sagarin ranks it 19th.
Compare Florida 10-1
Florida beat Hawaii (6-5) 56-10
Florida beat Miami of Florida (7-4) 26-3
Florida beat Tennessee (4-7) 30-6
Florida lost to Mississippi (8-4) 30-31 - they lost 3 fumbles and missed the last PAT, a bad game
Florida beat Arkansas (5-7) 38-7
Florida beat LSU (7-5) 52-21
Florida beat Kentucky (6-5) 63-5
Florida beat Georgia (9-2) 49-10
Florida beat Vanderbilt (6-5) 42-14
Florida beat South Carolina (7-4) 56-6
Florida beat Citadel (4-8) 70-19 - whoever scheduled this game was not thinking BCS stats
Florida plays Alabama on December 6
Florida has scored 62 TDs and allowed 16 (compare those stats to Alabama) in facing opposition with a combined won-lost record of 69-56. Massey Ratings ranks the Gator schedule 17th in the nation, Sagarin ranks it 32nd.
Compare USC 9-1
USC beat Virginia (5-6) 52-7
USC beat Ohio State (10-2) 35-3
USC lost to Oregon State (8-3) 21-27 at notorious Reser Stadium with a ca 10 pt. home edge
USC beat Oregon (8-3) 44-10
USC beat Arizona State (5-6) 28-0
USC beat Washington State (2-10) 69-0
USC beat Arizona (6-5) 17-10
USC beat Washington (0-11) 56-0
USC beat California (7-4) 17-3
USC beat Stanford (5-7) 45-23
USC plays () Notre Dame on November 29
USC plays UCLA () on December 6
USC has scored 49 TDs and allowed only 10 (compare to Alabama) in facing opposition with a combined won-lost record of 56-57. Massey Ratings ranks the Trojan schedule 36th in the nation, Sagarin ranks it 30th.
Compare Penn State 11-1
Penn State beat Coastal Carolina (6-6) 66-10
Penn State beat Oregon State (8-3) 45-14 - who will go to the Rose Bowl if they beat Oregon
Penn State beat Syracuse (3-8) 55-13
Penn State beat Temple (5-7) 45-3
Penn State beat Illinois (5-7) 38-24
Penn State beat Purdue (4-8) 20-6
Penn State beat Wisconsin (7-5) 48-7
Penn State beat Michigan (3-9) 46-17
Penn State beat Ohio State (10-2) 13-6
Penn State lost to Iowa (8-4) 23-24
Penn State beat Indiana (3-9) 34-7
Penn State beat Michigan State (9-3) 49-18
Penn State has scored 57 TDs and allowed 17 in facing opposition with a combined won-lost record of 71-71. Massey Ratings ranks the Nittany Lions schedule 58th in the nation, Sagarin ranks it 52nd.
Compare Utah 12-0
Utah beat Michigan (3-9) 25-23
Utah beat UNLV (5-7) 42-21
Utah beat Utah State (2-9) 58-10
Utah beat Air Force (8-4) 30-23
Utah beat Weber State (9-3) 37-21
Utah beat Oregon State (8-3) 31-28, a team that defeated USC and may be going to the Rose Bowl
Utah beat Wyoming (4-8) 40-7
Utah beat Colorado State (6-6) 49-16
Utah beat New Mexico (4-8) 13-10
Utah beat TCU (10-2) 13-10
Utah beat San Diego State (2-10) 63-14
Utah beat Brigham Young (10-2) 48-24
Utah has scored 49 TDs and allowed 24 in facing opposition with a combined won-lost record of 71 -71. Massey Ratings ranks the Ute schedule 56th. Sagarin rates it 74th.
Compare Boise State 12-0
Boise State beat Idaho State (1-11) 49-7
Boise State beat Bowling Green (6-6) 20-7
Boise State beat Oregon (8-3) 37-32
Boise State beat Louisiana Tech (7-4) 38-3
Boise State beat Southern Miss (5-6) 24-7
Boise State beat Hawaii (6-5) 27-7
Boise State beat San Jose State (6-6) 33-16
Boise State beat New Mexico State (3-8) 49-0
Boise State beat Utah State (2-9) 49-14
Boise State beat Idaho (2-10) 45-10
Boise State beat Nevada (6-5) 41-34
Boise State beat Fresno State (7-5) 61-10
Boise State has scored 57 TDs and allowed 15 in facing opposition with a combined won-lost record of 58 -78. Massey Ratings ranks the Broncos schedule 103rd. Sagarin rates it 118th.
Compare Ball State 12-0
Ball State beat Northeastern (2-10) 48-14
Ball State beat Navy (7-4) 35-23
Ball State beat Akron (5-7) 41-24
Ball State beat Indiana (3-9) 42-20
Ball State beat Kent State (4-8) 41-20
Ball State beat Toledo (3-9) 31-0
Ball State beat Western Kentucky (2-9) 24-7
Ball State beat Eastern Michigan (3-9) 38-16
Ball State beat Northern Illinois (6-6) 45-14
Ball State beat Miami of Ohio (2-10) 31-16
Ball State beat Central Michigan (8-4) 31-24
Ball State beat Western Michigan (9-3) 45-22
Ball State plays Buffalo (7-5) December 5
Ball State has scored 55 TDs and allowed 23 in facing opposition with a combined won-lost record of 61-93. Massey Ratings ranks the schedule of the Cardinals 119th. Sagarin rates it 124th.
What about statistics? From cfbstats.com
Except for a high rating in team total defense, where the Crimson Tide ranks behind USC and TCU, there is nothing special about this Alabama team. It has excelled in rushing defense (3rd) but not in passing defense (27th). Its own rushing offense ranks 23rd and 'Bama is 100th in passing offense. Those are hardly the marks of a national champion.
Permalink : Andis Kaulins : 11/29/2008 05:15:00 PM
Mirror mirror on the Wall, Who's the Best Team of them All? Not Alabama. Substantial Changes Need to be Made in the College Football Rating Systems
Not all is well in college football country as the football polls of the AP, USA Today, the Harris Poll and the BCS are wreaking havoc throughout the land. It is OK to follow such "polls" as long as one does not take them seriously. But really, who is truly best team in the land?
Should an 11-0 Alabama team that has deftly slipped its way through a weak schedule be ranked Number One in the nation? No way - if we look at objective criteria. Of all ranked teams at the very top, for example, except for Boise State and Ball State, the Crimson Tide competition this year has the WORST comparative won-loss record.
The Strongest Conferences
First of all there is the question of the strongest conferences this year.
Massey computer analysis ranks the ACC first (1.939), the Big 12 second (1.934), with the SEC a relatively distant 3rd (1.880), the Big East fourth (1.776), the Big 10 fifth (1.741), and the Mountain West sixth (1.722).
Sagarin uses an arithmetical trick (the central mean) to rank the ACC first, the Big 12 second, the SEC third, the Big 10 fourth, the Big East fifth, the Pac-10 seventh, the Mountain West eighth, the Mid-American ninth, the Western Athletic tenth, and Conference USA eleventh, but in fact, the simplest method used by Sagarin (the simple average) in fact gives the Big 12 conference the edge over the ACC. Which do you use? Even here, politics is at play.
Alabama and Florida are rated one and two in the country by the AP poll and one and three by the USA Today coaches poll. However, that rating is not justified by the strength of their conference, which is substantially weaker than the ACC or the Big 12.
In the one matchup of the SEC and the Big 12 during the regular season, Texas annihilated Arkansas 52-10, handing the Razorbacks their worst defeat of the season.
As far as the SEC goes, Virginia Tech, which beat Nebraska 35-30, still has a chance to be in the ACC title game if they beat Virginia [update: they did]. Nebraska has been beaten badly by Big 12 top teams, and that tells us a lot.
What about team individual performance?
Is there anything in that team performance to warrant such a high rank?
What about the Predictor and the Margin of Victory?
By something Sagarin calls the PREDICTOR or "pure points" because it is more accurate than the other methods that he discusses for predicting the outcome of games, the top 25 individual ranking of teams is as follows:
1. USC
2. Florida
3. Penn State
4. Texas
5. Oklahoma
6. Texas Tech
7. Missouri
8. Alabama
9. Ohio State
10. Iowa
11. TCU
12. Oregon State
13. Oklahoma State
14. Utah
15. Boise State
16. California
17. Mississippi
18. Georgia
19. Boston College
20. Florida State
21. Arizona
22. Clemson
23. Oregon
24. Nebraska
25. Ball State
We can compare that to the Margin of Victory (MOV) rankings at Massey Ratings:
1. Texas
2. Oklahoma
3. Texas Tech
4. Florida
5. USC
6. Penn State
7. Alabama
8. Oklahoma State
9. Boise State
10. Ohio State
11. Utah
12. Missouri
13. TCU
14. Ball State
15. Georgia
16. Oregon State
17. Nebraska
18. Cincinnati
19. Michigan State
20. Mississippi
21. Boston College
22. Florida State
23. Iowa
24. Oregon
25. BYU
The betting point spread is determined by rankings such as those above and not by the popularity-contest political polls such as the AP sportswriters and broadcasters poll, USA Today coaches poll, the Harris interactive conglomeration poll or the errant BCS ratings (as based mostly on the political polls), the latter of which seems to serve mostly various purposes of money-making.
Alabama ranks only 8th and 7th in pure points and margin of victory. Accordingly, comparative scores are not at the root of the Alabama Number One ranking. So what then has caused the pollsters to rank Alabama at the top? Respect for the talents of Nick Saban as head coach? Polls should not be head coach popularity contests but should be based on performance alone.
Who has Alabama beaten?
Alabama beat Clemson 34-10 - Clemson is 6-5 and has beaten no ranked team
Alabama beat Tulane 20-6, a team with a 2-9 record beaten by Tulsa 56-7 and even Army 44-13
Alabama beat Western Kentucky 41-7 (2-9) which lost to the worst team in Division I, North Texas, 51-40.
Alabama beat Arkansas 49-14 (5-7), which also lost to Texas 52-10.
Alabama beat Georgia 41-30 (9-2), which lost to Florida 49-10.
Alabama beat Kentucky 17-14 (6-5) ,which lost to Florida 63-5 and also to Vanderbilt 31-24
Alabama beat Mississippi 24-20 (8-4), which also lost to Vanderbilt 23-17
Alabama beat Tennessee 29-9 (4-7), which also lost to Wyoming 13-7
Alabama beat Arkansas State 35-0 (5-5), which also lost to Florida International 21-22
Alabama beat LSU (7-5) in overtime 27-21, a team that lost to Florida 51-21
Alabama beat Mississippi State (4-8) 32-7, a team that also lost to Louisiana Tech
Alabama plays Florida on December 6
Alabama has scored 35 TDs and allowed 15 in in facing an opposition with a combined NEGATIVE won-lost record of 59-66. Massey Ratings ranks the Alabama strength of schedule at 41st. Sagarin ranks the Crimson Tide schedule difficulty at 65th nationally.
Anyone who ranks Alabama as Number One in the country has simply not done his homework because there is no empirical basis at all to rank Alabama that highly, except for the ever-present political SEC bias.
Compare Oklahoma 10-1
Oklahoma beat Chattanooga (1-11) 57-2
Oklahoma beat Cincinnati (9-2) 52-26, champion of the Big East and a BCS bowl team this year
Oklahoma beat Washington (0-11) 55-14
Oklahoma beat TCU (10-2) 35-10
Oklahoma beat Baylor (4-7) 49-17
Oklahoma lost to Texas (11-1) 45-35
Oklahoma beat Kansas (6-5) 45-31
Oklahoma beat Kansas State (5-7) 58-35
Oklahoma beat Nebraska (8-4) 62-28
Oklahoma beat Texas A&M (4-8) 66-28
Oklahoma beat Texas Tech (10-1) 65-21
Oklahoma has scored 78 TDs and allowed 31 in facing opposition with a combined won-lost record of 68-59. Massey Ratings ranks the Sooner schedule difficulty 6th in the nation, Sagarin ranks it 25th.
Compare Texas 11-1
Texas beat Florida Atlantic (5-6) 52-10
Texas beat UTEP (5-7) 42-13
Texas beat Rice (8-3) 52-10
Texas beat Arkansas (5-7) 52-10
Texas beat Colorado (5-7) 38-14
Texas beat Oklahoma (10-1) 45-35
Texas beat Missouri (9-2) 56-31
Texas beat Oklahoma State (9-2) 28-24
Texas lost to Texas Tech (10-1) 33-39
Texas beat Baylor (4-7) 45-21
Texas beat Kansas (6-5) 35-7
Texas beat Texas A&M (4-8) 49-9
Texas has scored 66 TDs and allowed 25 in facing opposition with a combined won-lost record of 80-56. Massey Ratings ranks the Longhorn schedule difficulty 1st in the nation, Sagarin ranks it 5th.
Compare Texas Tech 10-1
Texas Tech beat Eastern Washington (6-5) 49-24
Texas Tech beat Nevada (6-5) 35-19
Texas Tech beat SMU (1-10) 43-7
Texas Tech beat Massachusetts (7-5) 56-14
Texas Tech beat Kansas State (5-7) 58-28
Texas Tech beat Nebraska (8-4) 37-31
Texas Tech beat Texas A&M (4-8) 43-25
Texas Tech beat Kansas (6-5) 63-21
Texas Tech beat Texas (11-1) 39-33
Texas Tech beat Oklahoma State (9-2) 56-20
Texas Tech lost to Oklahoma (10-1) 21-65
Texas Tech has scored 66 TDs and allowed 33 in facing opposition with a combined won-lost record of 73-53. Massey Ratings ranks the Red Raider schedule 10th in the nation, Sagarin ranks it 19th.
Compare Florida 10-1
Florida beat Hawaii (6-5) 56-10
Florida beat Miami of Florida (7-4) 26-3
Florida beat Tennessee (4-7) 30-6
Florida lost to Mississippi (8-4) 30-31 - they lost 3 fumbles and missed the last PAT, a bad game
Florida beat Arkansas (5-7) 38-7
Florida beat LSU (7-5) 52-21
Florida beat Kentucky (6-5) 63-5
Florida beat Georgia (9-2) 49-10
Florida beat Vanderbilt (6-5) 42-14
Florida beat South Carolina (7-4) 56-6
Florida beat Citadel (4-8) 70-19 - whoever scheduled this game was not thinking BCS stats
Florida plays Alabama on December 6
Florida has scored 62 TDs and allowed 16 (compare those stats to Alabama) in facing opposition with a combined won-lost record of 69-56. Massey Ratings ranks the Gator schedule 17th in the nation, Sagarin ranks it 32nd.
Compare USC 9-1
USC beat Virginia (5-6) 52-7
USC beat Ohio State (10-2) 35-3
USC lost to Oregon State (8-3) 21-27 at notorious Reser Stadium with a ca 10 pt. home edge
USC beat Oregon (8-3) 44-10
USC beat Arizona State (5-6) 28-0
USC beat Washington State (2-10) 69-0
USC beat Arizona (6-5) 17-10
USC beat Washington (0-11) 56-0
USC beat California (7-4) 17-3
USC beat Stanford (5-7) 45-23
USC plays () Notre Dame on November 29
USC plays UCLA () on December 6
USC has scored 49 TDs and allowed only 10 (compare to Alabama) in facing opposition with a combined won-lost record of 56-57. Massey Ratings ranks the Trojan schedule 36th in the nation, Sagarin ranks it 30th.
Compare Penn State 11-1
Penn State beat Coastal Carolina (6-6) 66-10
Penn State beat Oregon State (8-3) 45-14 - who will go to the Rose Bowl if they beat Oregon
Penn State beat Syracuse (3-8) 55-13
Penn State beat Temple (5-7) 45-3
Penn State beat Illinois (5-7) 38-24
Penn State beat Purdue (4-8) 20-6
Penn State beat Wisconsin (7-5) 48-7
Penn State beat Michigan (3-9) 46-17
Penn State beat Ohio State (10-2) 13-6
Penn State lost to Iowa (8-4) 23-24
Penn State beat Indiana (3-9) 34-7
Penn State beat Michigan State (9-3) 49-18
Penn State has scored 57 TDs and allowed 17 in facing opposition with a combined won-lost record of 71-71. Massey Ratings ranks the Nittany Lions schedule 58th in the nation, Sagarin ranks it 52nd.
Compare Utah 12-0
Utah beat Michigan (3-9) 25-23
Utah beat UNLV (5-7) 42-21
Utah beat Utah State (2-9) 58-10
Utah beat Air Force (8-4) 30-23
Utah beat Weber State (9-3) 37-21
Utah beat Oregon State (8-3) 31-28, a team that defeated USC and may be going to the Rose Bowl
Utah beat Wyoming (4-8) 40-7
Utah beat Colorado State (6-6) 49-16
Utah beat New Mexico (4-8) 13-10
Utah beat TCU (10-2) 13-10
Utah beat San Diego State (2-10) 63-14
Utah beat Brigham Young (10-2) 48-24
Utah has scored 49 TDs and allowed 24 in facing opposition with a combined won-lost record of 71 -71. Massey Ratings ranks the Ute schedule 56th. Sagarin rates it 74th.
Compare Boise State 12-0
Boise State beat Idaho State (1-11) 49-7
Boise State beat Bowling Green (6-6) 20-7
Boise State beat Oregon (8-3) 37-32
Boise State beat Louisiana Tech (7-4) 38-3
Boise State beat Southern Miss (5-6) 24-7
Boise State beat Hawaii (6-5) 27-7
Boise State beat San Jose State (6-6) 33-16
Boise State beat New Mexico State (3-8) 49-0
Boise State beat Utah State (2-9) 49-14
Boise State beat Idaho (2-10) 45-10
Boise State beat Nevada (6-5) 41-34
Boise State beat Fresno State (7-5) 61-10
Boise State has scored 57 TDs and allowed 15 in facing opposition with a combined won-lost record of 58 -78. Massey Ratings ranks the Broncos schedule 103rd. Sagarin rates it 118th.
Compare Ball State 12-0
Ball State beat Northeastern (2-10) 48-14
Ball State beat Navy (7-4) 35-23
Ball State beat Akron (5-7) 41-24
Ball State beat Indiana (3-9) 42-20
Ball State beat Kent State (4-8) 41-20
Ball State beat Toledo (3-9) 31-0
Ball State beat Western Kentucky (2-9) 24-7
Ball State beat Eastern Michigan (3-9) 38-16
Ball State beat Northern Illinois (6-6) 45-14
Ball State beat Miami of Ohio (2-10) 31-16
Ball State beat Central Michigan (8-4) 31-24
Ball State beat Western Michigan (9-3) 45-22
Ball State plays Buffalo (7-5) December 5
Ball State has scored 55 TDs and allowed 23 in facing opposition with a combined won-lost record of 61-93. Massey Ratings ranks the schedule of the Cardinals 119th. Sagarin rates it 124th.
What about statistics? From cfbstats.com
Except for a high rating in team total defense, where the Crimson Tide ranks behind USC and TCU, there is nothing special about this Alabama team. It has excelled in rushing defense (3rd) but not in passing defense (27th). Its own rushing offense ranks 23rd and 'Bama is 100th in passing offense. Those are hardly the marks of a national champion.
Permalink : Andis Kaulins : 11/29/2008 05:15:00 PM
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