Blog Feed
Twitter
LAW PUNDIT Tuesday, September 01, 2009 9/01/2009 05:31:00 PM [Home]
[Print]
THE 2009 YPPSYS (TM) PRE-SEASON DIVISION I-A (FBS) COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS and RANKINGS PREDICT A USC NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
We predict a USC national championship in 2009, based on the YPPSYS Ratings and Rankings.
THE YPPSYS (TM) DIVISION I-A FBS 2009 PRE-SEASON COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS and RANKINGS are based on performance ratings and rankings from the preceding season. Yppsys ratings and rankings are a YPP SYStem (yards per play system) primarily determined by four variables: 1) the net average yards per play gained vs. lost by the offense and defense of any team; 2) strength of schedule; 3) weakness of the defense; and 4) won-loss record. These figures must be adjusted for each team as the season progresses.
Permalink : Andis Kaulins : 9/01/2009 05:31:00 PM
THE 2009 YPPSYS (TM) PRE-SEASON DIVISION I-A (FBS) COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS and RANKINGS PREDICT A USC NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
We predict a USC national championship in 2009, based on the YPPSYS Ratings and Rankings.
THE YPPSYS (TM) DIVISION I-A FBS 2009 PRE-SEASON COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS and RANKINGS are based on performance ratings and rankings from the preceding season. Yppsys ratings and rankings are a YPP SYStem (yards per play system) primarily determined by four variables: 1) the net average yards per play gained vs. lost by the offense and defense of any team; 2) strength of schedule; 3) weakness of the defense; and 4) won-loss record. These figures must be adjusted for each team as the season progresses.
- NAYPPA (TM) (Net Average Yards Per Play Advantage) is calculated according to statistical data available at CFBSTATS.COM. A team that gains 6 yards per play on offense and gives up 4 yards per play on defense has a NAYPPA of 2.0 - enough some years for a national champion.
- Schedule Difficulty is the ranking according to Massey Ratings. A multiple of .01 of the schedule ranking (rounded up or down) is subtracted from the NAYPPA of Division I-A FBS schools. For Division I-AA FCS and Division II schools the schedule difficulty multiple is .015 and for Division III schools and the NAIA the multiple is .02. For example, if a school has a schedule difficulty which ranks it 50th in the nation, then .01 x 50 = .5 which is subtracted from the NAYPPA, in the example above 2.0 minus 0.5 = a rating of 1.5
- Weakness of Defense Penalty. If a team allows 5 or more yards per play on defense an additional .1 is subtracted from the NAYPPA; if 6 yards per play or more are allowed, then .2 is subtracted,; if 7 yards per play or more are allowed, then .3 is subtracted. For example, if the team above with a rating of 1.5 gave up 5.2 yards per play on defense then .1 is subtracted from 1.5 to give 1.4.
- Win-Loss Record. For each loss .2 is deducted from the NAYPPA. For example, if the team above had a record of 12-1, i.e. losing one game, then .2 is subtracted from 1.4 for a final rating of 1.2, which in 2007 was high enough to mark the national champion.
- Predicting Games. ONE point of rating difference by NAYPPA = 9 points on the scoreboard. Note that Massey Ratings calculates the home field advantage at an average of 2.68 points whereas Sagarin uses the rounded figure of 3 points.
TEAM | 2008 season yards/play cfbstats.com offense defense advantage NAYPPA | SCHed. difficulty multiplied times .01 is subtracted from NAYPPA | Wins-Losses Games lost adjustment Subtract .2 per loss from NAYPPA | YPPSYS Composite Rating | YPPSYS Div. I-A FBS 2009 Pre- Season Ranking |
| USC | 6.6,3.6,3.0 | 3 | 12-1 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Florida | 7.1,4.5,2.6 | 32 | 13-1 | 2.1 | 2 |
| Oklahoma | 6.9,5.2,1.7 | 5 | 12-2 | 1.2 | 3 |
| Oregon | 6.6,4.9,1.7 | 2 | 10-3 | 1.1 | 4 |
| Georgia | 6.7,5.0,1.7 | 4 | 10-3 | 1.1 | 5 |
| Penn State | 6.5,4.4,2.1 | 69 | 11-2 | 1.0 | 6 |
| Boise State | 6.5,4.3,2.2 | 98 | 12-1 | 1.0 | 7 |
| Texas | 6.5,5.3,1.2 | 8 | 11-1 | 0.8 | 8 |
| Texas Tech | 7.1,5.6,1.5 | 18 | 11-2 | 0.8 | 9 |
| California | 5.9,4.4,1.5 | 16 | 9-4 | 0.5 | 10 |
| Utah | 5.7,4.6,1.1 | 64 | 13-0 | 0.5 | 11 |
| TCU | 5.4,3.8,1.6 | 68 | 11-2 | 0.5 | 12 |
| Georgia Tech | 6.0,4.8,1.2 | 6 | 9-4 | 0.3 | 13 |
| Oklahoma State | 7.0,5.6,1.4 | 17 | 9-4 | 0.3 | 14 |
| Missouri | 6.9,5.3,1.6 | 40 | 10-4 | 0.3 | 15 |
| Alabama | 5.5,4.3,1.2 | 52 | 12-2 | 0.3 | 16 |
| Iowa | 5.8,4.4,1.4 | 45 | 9-4 | 0.2 | 17 |
| Mississippi | 6.2,4.7,1.5 | 56 | 9-4 | 0.1 | 18 |
| Tulsa | 7.3,5.7,1.6 | 78 | 11-3 | 0.1 | 19 |
| Ohio State | 5.5,4.5,1.0 | 42 | 10-3 | 0.0 | 20 |
| Florida State | 5.5,4.8,0.7 | 1 | 9-4 | -0.1 | 21 |
| BYU | 6.3,5.2,1.1 | 61 | 10-3 | -0.2 | 22 |
| West Virginia | 5.7,4.7,1.0 | 54 | 9-4 | -0.3 | 23 |
| Cincinnati | 5.6,4.7,0.9 | 63 | 11-3 | -0.3 | 24 |
| Houston | 7.2,5.6,1.6 | 80 | 8-5 | -0.3 | 25 |
| Oregon State | 5.7,5.0,0.7 | 20 | 9-4 | -0.4 | 26 |
| Nebraska | 6.4,5.7,0.7 | 22 | 9-4 | -0.4 | 27 |
| Ball State | 6.7,5.4,1.3 | 117 | 12-2 | -0.4 | 28 |
| Arizona | 5.7,5.0,0.7 | 19 | 8-5 | -0.6 | 29 |
| South Florida | 5.7,4.6,1.1 | 66 | 8-5 | -0.6 | 30 |
| Pittsburgh | 5.1,4.9,0.2 | 53 | 9-4 | -0.7 | 31 |
| Clemson | 5.2,4.5,0.7 | 31 | 7-6 | -0.8 | 32 |
| Illinois | 6.2,5.2,1.0 | 41 | 5-7 | -0.9 | 33 |
| Connecticut | 5.2,4.6,0.6 | 50 | 8-5 | -0.9 | 34 |
| Kansas | 5.9,5.6,0.3 | 21 | 8-5 | -1.0 | 35 |
| Boston College | 4.6,4.2,0.4 | 37 | 9-5 | -1.0 | 36 |
| Troy | 5.5,4.5,1.0 | 101 | 8-5 | -1.0 | 37 |
| Miami of Florida | 5.1,4.9,0.2 | 9 | 7-6 | -1.1 | 38 |
| Maryland | 5.5,5.2,0.3 | 13 | 8-5 | -1.1 | 39 |
| LSU | 5.4,5.0,0.4 | 23 | 8-5 | -1.1 | 40 |
| North Carolina | 5.4,5.0,0.4 | 43 | 8-5 | -1.1 | 41 |
| Rutgers | 6.2,5.4,0.8 | 82 | 8-5 | -1.1 | 42 |
| Baylor | 5.9,5.3,0.6 | 15 | 4-8 | -1.2 | 43 |
| Wisconsin | 5.8,5.0,0.8 | 67 | 7-6 | -1.2 | 44 |
| South Carolina | 4.7,4.7,0.0 | 7 | 7-6 | -1.3 | 45 |
| Virginia Tech | 4.5,4.9,-0.4 | 12 | 10-4 | -1.3 | 46 |
| Tennessee | 4.5,4.1,0.4 | 30 | 5-7 | -1.3 | 47 |
| Wake Forest | 4.5,4.6,-0.1 | 34 | 8-5 | -1.4 | 48 |
| Northwestern | 4.9,4.8,0.1 | 73 | 9-4 | -1.4 | 49 |
| Notre Dame | 5.2,5.0,0.2 | 36 | 7-6 | -1.5 | 50 |
| Rice | 6.3,6.3,0.0 | 71 | 10-3 | -1.5 | 51 |
| East Carolina | 5.1,4.9,0.2 | 72 | 9-5 | -1.5 | 52 |
| Nevada | 6.5,5.9,0.6 | 83 | 7-6 | -1.5 | 53 |
| Western Michigan | 6.0,5.5,0.5 | 110 | 9-4 | -1.5 | 54 |
| Arizona State | 4.9,4.8,0.1 | 27 | 5-7 | -1.6 | 55 |
| Arkansas State | 6.0,5.2,0.8 | 118 | 6-6 | -1.7 | 56 |
| Stanford | 5.4,5.6,-0.2 | 11 | 5-7 | -1.8 | 57 |
| Michigan State | 4.9,5.3,-0.4 | 55 | 9-4 | -1.8 | 58 |
| Navy | 5.7,5.6,0.1 | 76 | 8-5 | -1.8 | 59 |
| Arkansas | 5.5,5.6,-0.1 | 29 | 5-7 | -1.9 | 60 |
| Air Force | 5.0,5.1,-0.1 | 75 | 8-5 | -1.9 | 61 |
| Southern Miss | 5.7,5.4,0.3 | 86 | 7-6 | -1.9 | 62 |
| Virginia | 4.6,4.9,-0.3 | 26 | 5-7 | -2.0 | 63 |
| Bowling Green | 5.3,5.1,0.2 | 92 | 6-6 | -2.0 | 64 |
| Florida Atlantic | 5.9,5.6,0.3 | 105 | 7-6 | -2.0 | 65 |
| Vanderbilt | 4.2,4.9,-0.7 | 24 | 7-6 | -2.1 | 66 |
| Auburn | 4.5,4.9,-0.4 | 33 | 5-7 | -2.1 | 67 |
| L.-Lafayette (ULL) | 6.6,6.2,0.4 | 112 | 6-6 | -2.1 | 68 |
| New Mexico | 4.9,5.0,-0.1 | 65 | 4-8 | -2.2 | 69 |
| Louisiana Tech | 5.2,5.4,-0.2 | 93 | 8-5 | -2.2 | 70 |
| Ohio | 5.6,5.1,0.5 | 109 | 4-8 | -2.3 | 71 |
| Northern Illinois | 5.4,5.0,0.4 | 120 | 6-7 | -2.3 | 72 |
| Minnesota | 4.9,5.7,-0.8 | 35 | 7-6 | -2.4 | 73 |
| Kentucky | 4.5,5.2,-0.7 | 44 | 7-6 | -2.4 | 74 |
| Purdue | 5.0,5.2,-0.2 | 49 | 4-8 | -2.4 | 75 |
| San Jose State | 4.4,4.8,-0.4 | 79 | 6-6 | -2.4 | 76 |
| Kansas State | 5.8,6.2,-0.4 | 51 | 5-7 | -2.5 | 77 |
| Wyoming | 4.6,4.9,-0.3 | 60 | 4-8 | -2.5 | 78 |
| Colorado State | 5.8,6.2,-0.4 | 74 | 7-6 | -2.5 | 79 |
| Fresno State | 5.9,6.1,-0.2 | 91 | 7-6 | -2.5 | 80 |
| Florida Int'l | 4.9,5.0,-0.1 | 95 | 5-7 | -2.5 | 81 |
| Akron | 5.7,5.5,0.2 | 119 | 5-7 | -2.5 | 82 |
| N. Carolina State | 5.1,5.7,-0.6 | 46 | 6-7 | -2.6 | 83 |
| Memphis | 5.6,5.9,-0.3 | 81 | 6-7 | -2.6 | 84 |
| Central Michigan | 5.7,6.1,-0.4 | 99 | 8-5 | -2.6 | 85 |
| Hawaii | 5.4,5.5,-0.1 | 104 | 7-7 | -2.6 | 86 |
| UCLA | 4.2,5.1,-0.9 | 10 | 4-8 | -2.7 | 87 |
| Louisville | 5.3,5.9,-0.6 | 57 | 5-7 | -2.7 | 88 |
| Colorado | 4.5,5.5,-1.0 | 28 | 5-7 | -2.8 | 89 |
| Mid. Tennessee | 5.1,5.4,-0.3 | 103 | 5-7 | -2.8 | 90 |
| Marshall | 5.1,5.4,-0.3 | 90 | 4-8 | -2.9 | 91 |
| Kent State | 5.8,5.9,-0.1 | 115 | 4-8 | -2.9 | 92 |
| Mississippi State | 4.2,5.1,-0.9 | 39 | 4-8 | -3.0 | 93 |
| Temple | 4.8,5.2,-0.4 | 111 | 5-7 | -3.0 | 94 |
| Buffalo | 5.4,5.9,-0.5 | 116 | 8-6 | -3.0 | 95 |
| Indiana | 5.2,5.8,-0.6 | 59 | 3-9 | -3.1 | 96 |
| UTEP | 6.0,6.6,-0.6 | 87 | 5-7 | -3.1 | 97 |
| Toledo | 5.3,5.5,-0.2 | 96 | 3-9 | -3.1 | 98 |
| Duke | 4.4,5.4,-1.0 | 47 | 4-8 | -3.2 | 99 |
| Texas A&M | 5.3,6.4,-1.1 | 38 | 4-8 | -3.3 | 100 |
| UNLV | 5.2,6.2,-1.0 | 70 | 5-7 | -3.3 | 101 |
| New Mexico State | 5.3,5.6,-0.3 | 108 | 3-9 | -3.3 | 102 |
| Michigan | 4.4,5.3,-0.9 | 62 | 3-9 | -3.4 | 103 |
| UCF | 3.6,4.7,-1.1 | 85 | 4-8 | -3.5 | 104 |
| Utah State | 5.1,5.8,-0.7 | 94 | 3-9 | -3.5 | 105 |
| Syracuse | 4.7,5.9,-1.2 | 48 | 3-9 | -3.6 | 106 |
| UAB | 5.6,6.6,-1.0 | 77 | 4-8 | -3.6 | 107 |
| Iowa State | 5.5,6.7,-1.2 | 58 | 2-10 | -4.0 | 108 |
| Western Kentucky | 4.6,5.4,-0.8 | 107 | 2-10 | -4.0 | 109 |
| Eastern Michigan | 5.5,6.6,-1.1 | 100 | 3-9 | -4.1 | 110 |
| Army | 4.5,5.6,-1.1 | 106 | 3-9 | -4.1 | 111 |
| L.-Monroe (ULM) | 5.2,6.5,-1.3 | 114 | 4-8 | -4.2 | 112 |
| Tulane | 5.0,6.3,-1.3 | 84 | 2-10 | -4.3 | 113 |
| San Diego State | 4.8,6.2,-1.4 | 88 | 2-10 | -4.5 | 114 |
| SMU | 5.4,6.5,-1.1 | 97 | 1-11 | -4.5 | 115 |
| Miami of Ohio | 4.7,6.3,-1.6 | 89 | 2-10 | -4.7 | 116 |
| Idaho | 4.8,6.6,-1.8 | 102 | 2-10 | -5.0 | 117 |
| Washington State | 3.9,6.5,-2.6 | 25 | 2-11 | -5.2 | 118 |
| Washington | 4.0,6.6,-2.6 | 14 | 0-12 | -5.3 | 119 |
| North Texas | 4.9,7.1,-2.2 | 113 | 1-11 | -5.8 | 120 |
| TEAM | NAYPPA | SCHed. difficulty multiplied times .01 subtract from NAYPPA | Win-Loss Record subtract .2 per loss from NAYPPA | YPPSYS Rating | |
| Other Divisions (playoff champions) Division I-AA FCS | includes playoff games if stats available | x .015 | |||
| Richmond | 5,6,4.4,1.2 | 129 | 13-3 | -1.4 | |
| Division II | x .015 | ||||
| Minnesota-Duluth | 6.6,3.9,2.7 | 278 | 15-0 | -1.5 | |
| Division III | x .02 | ||||
| Mount Union | 8.2,3.5,4.7 | 419 | 14-0 | -3.7 | |
| NAIA | x .02 | ||||
| Sioux Falls | 5.4,2.2,3.2 | 379 | 14-0 | -4.4 |
Permalink : Andis Kaulins : 9/01/2009 05:31:00 PM
......Creative Commons License