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LAW PUNDIT Monday, November 16, 2009 11/16/2009 06:40:00 PM [Home]
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YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) through November 14, 2009, after Week 11 games
As one can see from the above ratings and rankings, almost no other objective parameter in college football ranks teams as easily as NAYPPA, net average yards per play advantage, i.e. the yards gained per play on offense and the yards allowed per play on defense - and the difference between them. When that figure is adjusted by the strength of schedule, this completely objective ranking system is in some respects superior to polls currently in use which sometimes pay too much attention to the win-loss record rather than to the actual strength of a team. NAYPPA also easily permits a comparison of football teams from different football eras - e.g. especially with respect to the question of the best college football teams of all time.
YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS for NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on 1) net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), 2) strength of schedule, 3) a small adjustment for good defense (we are in the process of improving this variable) and 4) adjustment for losses through November 14, 2009, after Week 11 of regular season games.
The average yards per play component in NCAA Division I-A FBS college football has been remarkably constant for all the years we have kept track of it - this year showing a median for 120 teams of 5.5 yards per play gained on offense and 5.4 yards per play permitted on defense. There is at most a 1/10th yard variation (.1) any season. This is in spite of continuous tweaking of offenses and defenses. For an average schedule: a team averaging less than 5.5 yards per play on offense has either a subpar offense or a subpar offensive coordination, while a team averaging more than 5.4 yards per play on defense has either a subpar defense or a subpar defensive coordination. One must of course adjust those stats by the difficulty of schedule for each team.
NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings (SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Statistics are from cfbstats.com
To obtain the Rating from which the Rank is calculated, one starts with the YPP OFF, subtracts the YPP DEF, subtracts the difficulty of schedule as a variable calculated as 1/100 of the schedule rating so that for a schedule rating of 18 for example, .18 is subtracted (rounded up or down to the nearest figure, here rounded up to .2), and for each loss .2 is subtracted. A penalty of .1 is subtracted if the defense allows 5.0 or more yards per play, .2 for more than 6.0 yards per play, and .3 for more than 7.0 yards per play. In the case of equal ratings, the team with the toughest schedule is ranked first. One point of rating difference is equivalent to 9 points on the scoreboard.
Permalink : Andis Kaulins : 11/16/2009 06:40:00 PM
YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) through November 14, 2009, after Week 11 games
YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS for NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) through November 14, 2009, after Week 11 games
TOP 25 (see all the teams ranked at SportPundit)| Rank | After 11th Week | NAYPPA | YPP OFF | YPP DEF | Schedule | W-L | Rating | |||||
| 1 | Florida | 2.6 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 17 | 10-0 | 2.4 | |||||
| 2 | Alabama | 2.3 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 6 | 10-0 | 2.2 | |||||
| 3 | Cincinnati | 2.7 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 47 | 10-0 | 2.2 | |||||
| 4 | TCU | 2.4 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 37 | 10-0 | 2.0 | |||||
| 5 | Texas | 2.2 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 31 | 10-0 | 1.9 | |||||
| 6 | Oregon | 1.8 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 7 | 8-2 | 1.3 | |||||
| 7 | Pittsburgh | 1.7 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 50 | 9-1 | 1.0 | |||||
| 8 | Boise State | 1.8 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 80 | 10-0 | 1.0 | |||||
| 9 | Virginia Tech | 1.5 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 1 | 7-3 | 0.9 | |||||
| 10 | USC | 1.5 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 10 | 7-3 | 0.8 | |||||
| 11 | Oklahoma | 1.8 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 26 | 6-4 | 0.7 | |||||
| 12 | Nebraska | 1.6 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 35 | 7-3 | 0.6 | |||||
| 13 | Penn State | 1.8 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 81 | 9-2 | 0.6 | |||||
| 14 | Clemson | 1.2 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 13 | 6-3 | 0.5 | |||||
| 15 | Ohio State | 1.5 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 57 | 9-2 | 0.5 | |||||
| 16 | Texas Tech | 1.6 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 40 | 6-4 | 0.4 | |||||
| 17 | Miami (Florida) | 1.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4 | 7-3 | 0.3 | |||||
| 18 | Georgia Tech | 0.7 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 5 | 10-1 | 0.3 | |||||
| 19 | Mississippi | 1.3 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 36 | 7-3 | 0.3 | |||||
| 20 | LSU | 0.7 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 16 | 8-2 | 0.1 | |||||
| 21 | Oklahoma State | 0.8 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 34 | 8-2 | 0.1 | |||||
| 22 | Utah | 1.1 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 63 | 8-2 | 0.1 | |||||
| 23 | BYU | 1.3 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 74 | 8-2 | 0.1 | |||||
| 24 | Stanford | 0.8 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 21 | 7-3 | 0.0 | |||||
| 25 | Iowa | 0.8 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 39 | 9-2 | 0.0 |
As one can see from the above ratings and rankings, almost no other objective parameter in college football ranks teams as easily as NAYPPA, net average yards per play advantage, i.e. the yards gained per play on offense and the yards allowed per play on defense - and the difference between them. When that figure is adjusted by the strength of schedule, this completely objective ranking system is in some respects superior to polls currently in use which sometimes pay too much attention to the win-loss record rather than to the actual strength of a team. NAYPPA also easily permits a comparison of football teams from different football eras - e.g. especially with respect to the question of the best college football teams of all time.
YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS for NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on 1) net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), 2) strength of schedule, 3) a small adjustment for good defense (we are in the process of improving this variable) and 4) adjustment for losses through November 14, 2009, after Week 11 of regular season games.
The average yards per play component in NCAA Division I-A FBS college football has been remarkably constant for all the years we have kept track of it - this year showing a median for 120 teams of 5.5 yards per play gained on offense and 5.4 yards per play permitted on defense. There is at most a 1/10th yard variation (.1) any season. This is in spite of continuous tweaking of offenses and defenses. For an average schedule: a team averaging less than 5.5 yards per play on offense has either a subpar offense or a subpar offensive coordination, while a team averaging more than 5.4 yards per play on defense has either a subpar defense or a subpar defensive coordination. One must of course adjust those stats by the difficulty of schedule for each team.
NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings (SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Statistics are from cfbstats.com
To obtain the Rating from which the Rank is calculated, one starts with the YPP OFF, subtracts the YPP DEF, subtracts the difficulty of schedule as a variable calculated as 1/100 of the schedule rating so that for a schedule rating of 18 for example, .18 is subtracted (rounded up or down to the nearest figure, here rounded up to .2), and for each loss .2 is subtracted. A penalty of .1 is subtracted if the defense allows 5.0 or more yards per play, .2 for more than 6.0 yards per play, and .3 for more than 7.0 yards per play. In the case of equal ratings, the team with the toughest schedule is ranked first. One point of rating difference is equivalent to 9 points on the scoreboard.
Permalink : Andis Kaulins : 11/16/2009 06:40:00 PM
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